Joey Votto made his season debut last night and drove in the tying and winning runs of Cincinnati's 5-4 win over Colorado, catapulting the Reds into 1st place in the NL Central.
Votto lined out in the 2nd inning and led off the 5th with a home run. One Run, one Out so far.
In the 6th he hit a bases-loaded, one-out single, scoring Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz.
In 2022, the runner on 3rd averaged one base and the runner on 2nd averaged 1.507 bases when the batter hit a single with the bases loaded and one out. Both runners equaled or exceeded those averages, so Votto gets credit for 2.507 bases worth of run scoring. One base is a quarter of a run, so that's 2.507 / 4 = .627 Runs Votto created with his hit.
In the 8th, Will Benson pinch-ran for Votto after he walked, so Votto didn't even get charged any baserunning Outs when Jake Fraley forced Benson at 2nd.
Final score: 1.627 Runs, 1 Out, a 43.92 ORA.
A player's Runs can be estimated by his runs scored, RBI, and home runs. Votto scored one run, drove in three, and hit one homer. A run scored is worth 5/9 Runs, an RBI is worth 4/9 Runs, and a home run is worth 1/12 Runs. So we could estimate that Votto created 5/9 + 12/9 + 1/12 = 17/9 + 1/12 = 1.972 Runs. In this case, Votto fell short of his estimate. He "only" created 1.627 Runs. (And .627 of those Runs were pretty huge for the Reds, but that's something for the people calculating Wins and Losses, not just Runs and Outs, to worry about.)
For most players, their Runs and estimated Runs will just about even out over the course of a season. Here's the top 10 qualified batters of 2023 so far, based on the simple formulas. The Outs estimate is AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF, and ORA = Runs / Outs x 27.
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