The Matt McLain Show

The Reds lost the game and the series (by one run, on both counts) to the Braves yesterday, but rookie Matt McLain went 4-for-5 with 3 doubles, a home run, 2 runs scored, and 5 RBI. The simple formula estimates he created (5x2 + 4x5)/9 + 1/12 = (10+20)/9 +1/12 = 30/9 + 1/12 = 3.42 Runs. The longform version, based on 2022 percentages, says he created... 3.40.

Inn Batter Event     Runner    Runs Outs

1st McLain Strikeout McLain         1.00

3rd McLain Double    McLain     .50

    Steer  Double    McLain     .02

4th McLain Double    Stephenson .25

                     Senzel     .49

7th McLain Home Run  McLain    1.00

8th McLain Double    Newman     .50

                     Friedl     .64

           Batting             3.38 1.00

           Baserunning          .02

           Total               3.40 1.00

McLain struck out in his first at-bat, and then each of his extra-base hits was more productive than the last.

Inn Event    Result Runs

3rd Double   R       .50

4th Double   2 RBI   .74

7th Home Run R, RBI 1.00

8th Double   2 RBI  1.14

His third double was more valuable than his second because it scored runners from 1st and 2nd; his second double scored runners from 2nd and 3rd.

Here's the up-to-date Top 10 qualified batters in simple ORA. This will be Alvarez's last day in the Top 10 for a while. Matt Olson, on the strength of four home runs in the three-game series in Cincinnati, has surged into 5th, close behind teammate Acuna. Ohtani is just one point behind Garcia for 2nd in the AL (which will be 1st after Alvarez's next missed game). Matt McLain has 26.9 Runs and 111 Outs; a 6.53 ORA.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Will Smith, LAD       39.8  148  7.26

 3 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 59.4  226  7.10

 4 Freddie Freeman, LAD  56.9  218  7.05

 5 Matt Olson, ATL       61.0  234  7.04

 6 Adolis Garcia, TEX    58.6  226  7.01

 7 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    58.1  224  7.00

 8 Corbin Carroll, ARI   52.3  203  6.96

 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.2  181  6.90

10 Jonah Heim, TEX       47.0  186  6.83