The Best Player in the World is Now Number 1 in Simple ORA

Shohei Ohtani had a a pair of strikeouts, a pair of walks, and a two-run homer in the Angels' 9-7 loss to the White Sox last night.

He was stranded after the first (intentional) walk and was forced out at 2B after the second one when Mike Moustakas grounded into a double play. In 2022, with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out, a groundball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt resulted in at least one out on the play 95% of the time. That's Moustakas's share of the blame for Ohtani's out; Ohtani has to eat the other 5%.

Mike Trout was on 1B when Ohtani homered, so Ohtani earns .75 Runs for Trout and a full run for himself.

Here's the final tally for Ohtani's five plate appearances:

Inn Event     Runs Outs

1st Strikeout      1.00

2nd Strikeout      1.00

4th Int. Walk

7th Walk            .05

9th Home Run  1.75

Total         1.75 2.05

The simple formulas say he had one home run (1/12 Runs), one run scored (5/9 Runs), and 2 RBI ((2*4)/9 = 8/9 Runs), which adds up to 1/12 + 13/9, or 1.53 Runs, and 3 AB - 1 hit = 2 Outs.

Here is the updated Top 10, based on the simple formulas. ORA (and sORA), like ERA, is Runs / Outs * 27.

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    64.0  230  7.51

 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.7  231  7.44

 3 Adolis Garcia, TEX    64.3  237  7.33

 4 Freddie Freeman, LAD  59.8  226  7.15

 5 Will Smith, LAD       40.3  154  7.07

 6 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  210  6.98

 7 Matt Olson, ATL       62.5  243  6.94

 8 Mookie Betts, LAD     58.2  232  6.78

 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR       47.3  189  6.76

10 Max Muncy, LAD        45.6  184  6.69

Garcia Retakes the Lead

Garcia's estimated Runs and Outs for his game yesterday vs Detroit:

1 home run = 1/12 Runs

2 runs scored = (2*5)/9 = 10/9 Runs

3 RBI = (3*4)/9 = 12/9 Runs

1/12 + 22/9 = 2.53 Runs

5 AB - 3 hits = 2 Outs

His actual Runs and Outs (based on 2022 percentages):

Inn Batter Event     Runner  Runs Outs

1st Garcia ROE       Garcia  .250

    Duran  Single    Garcia  .068

2nd Garcia Strikeout Garcia       1.00

6th Garcia Home Run  Seager  .750

                     Garcia 1.000

7th Garcia Double    Smith   .500

           Batting          2.275 1.00

           Baserunning       .293

           Total            2.568 1.00

About 2.57 Runs against 1 Out. Most of the .25 for reaching 1st on an error and all of the .068 for scoring from 2nd on Ezequiel Duran's single was baserunning Runs; the rest was batting Runs.

Garcia retakes the lead (in a very tight three-way race) in simple ORA:

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Adolis Garcia, TEX    64.3  233  7.45

 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.7  231  7.44

 3 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    62.4  228  7.39

 4 Will Smith, LAD       40.3  154  7.07

 5 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  208  7.05

 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  57.9  225  6.95

 7 Matt Olson, ATL       62.5  243  6.94

 8 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.8  185  6.83

 9 Ketel Marte, ARI      54.1  218  6.71

10 Randy Arozarena, TBR  52.4  213  6.64

Simple ORA Top 10 - Judge Gone, Alvarez Gone, Acuna and Ohtani (and Parity) Rule

As Yordan Alvarez falls off the requisite number of plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, the frontrunners for MVP of their respective leagues are now ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Run Average, as best as can be determined by the simple formulas. We won't know their actual Runs and Outs until the season is over, but the formulas give a good estimate:

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

And ORA is always Runs / Outs x 27, just as it is for pitchers (except I don't bother with a distinction between earned and unearned runs).

Acuna and Ohtani each hit a pair of solo home runs yesterday. Acuna paired his two homers with a strikeout and groundout, while Ohtani reached base twice more with a single and a walk but was stranded both times. Translation: both men created two Runs; but Acuna also caused two Outs whereas Ohtani was blameless (he also pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball with 10 K's). Still, Acuna edges out Ohtani for #1 in the first post-Alvarez Top 10.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.1  230  7.41

 2 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    61.3  226  7.33

 3 Adolis Garcia, TEX    61.8  231  7.22

 4 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  205  7.15

 5 Will Smith, LAD       39.8  152  7.07

 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  57.5  222  6.99

 7 Matt Olson, ATL       61.0  241  6.83

 8 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.2  184  6.78

 9 Ketel Marte, ARI      53.7  215  6.74

10 Isaac Paredes, TBR    44.4  178  6.74

The Matt McLain Show

The Reds lost the game and the series (by one run, on both counts) to the Braves yesterday, but rookie Matt McLain went 4-for-5 with 3 doubles, a home run, 2 runs scored, and 5 RBI. The simple formula estimates he created (5x2 + 4x5)/9 + 1/12 = (10+20)/9 +1/12 = 30/9 + 1/12 = 3.42 Runs. The longform version, based on 2022 percentages, says he created... 3.40.

Inn Batter Event     Runner    Runs Outs

1st McLain Strikeout McLain         1.00

3rd McLain Double    McLain     .50

    Steer  Double    McLain     .02

4th McLain Double    Stephenson .25

                     Senzel     .49

7th McLain Home Run  McLain    1.00

8th McLain Double    Newman     .50

                     Friedl     .64

           Batting             3.38 1.00

           Baserunning          .02

           Total               3.40 1.00

McLain struck out in his first at-bat, and then each of his extra-base hits was more productive than the last.

Inn Event    Result Runs

3rd Double   R       .50

4th Double   2 RBI   .74

7th Home Run R, RBI 1.00

8th Double   2 RBI  1.14

His third double was more valuable than his second because it scored runners from 1st and 2nd; his second double scored runners from 2nd and 3rd.

Here's the up-to-date Top 10 qualified batters in simple ORA. This will be Alvarez's last day in the Top 10 for a while. Matt Olson, on the strength of four home runs in the three-game series in Cincinnati, has surged into 5th, close behind teammate Acuna. Ohtani is just one point behind Garcia for 2nd in the AL (which will be 1st after Alvarez's next missed game). Matt McLain has 26.9 Runs and 111 Outs; a 6.53 ORA.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Will Smith, LAD       39.8  148  7.26

 3 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 59.4  226  7.10

 4 Freddie Freeman, LAD  56.9  218  7.05

 5 Matt Olson, ATL       61.0  234  7.04

 6 Adolis Garcia, TEX    58.6  226  7.01

 7 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    58.1  224  7.00

 8 Corbin Carroll, ARI   52.3  203  6.96

 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.2  181  6.90

10 Jonah Heim, TEX       47.0  186  6.83

Breaking Down De La Cruz's Cycle

In the second inning, Elly De La Cruz led off with a double and then scored on Jake Fraley's two-run homer:

Inn Batter Event  Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double EDLC    .50

In the third, Elly hit a two-run homer of his own, scoring Jonathan India from 3rd.

Inn Batter Event    Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double   EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run India   .25

                    EDLC   1.00

           Batting         1.75

           Baserunning

           Total           1.75

In the fifth, De La Cruz singled with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. In 2022, the runner on 2nd averaged 1.452 bases and the runner on 1st averaged 1.229 bases when the batter hit a single with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. Matt McLain scored and India went from 1st to 3rd, so both runners exceeded those averages. After De La Cruz stole 2nd, Joey Votto hit a three-run homer. So Elly earned 1.452 / 4 = .363 Runs for driving in McLain, 1.229 / 4 = .307 Runs for advancing India to 3rd, and 1 / 4 = .25 Runs for getting himself to 1st; that's .92 total batting Runs for the single. He also earned .25 baserunning Runs for stealing 2nd.

Inn Batter Event       Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double      EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run    India   .25

                       EDLC   1.00

5th EDLC   Single      McLain  .36

                       India   .31

                       EDLC    .25

5th        Stolen Base EDLC    .25

           Batting            2.67

           Baserunning         .25

           Total              2.92

In the sixth, De La Cruz tripled to finish the Reds' first cycle since 1989, scoring India from 1st. He was later caught stealing home, his first out of the game and the first caught stealing of his career. In the eighth he made his only batting Out: a flyout.

Inn Batter Event           Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double          EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run        India   .25

                           EDLC   1.00

5th EDLC   Single          McLain  .36

                           India   .31

                           EDLC    .25

5th        Stolen Base     EDLC    .25

6th EDLC   Triple          India   .75

6th        Caught Stealing EDLC        1.00

8th EDLC   Flyout          EDLC        1.00

           Batting                3.42 1.00

           Baserunning             .25 1.00

           Total                  3.67 2.00

Elly had the home run, 3 runs scored, and 4 RBI, so the simple formula estimates he created (3x5 + 4x4)/9 + 1/12 = (15 + 16)/9 + 1/12 = 31/9 + 1/12 = 3.53 Runs, a little less than the 3.67 Runs he actually created (according to the 2022 percentages, at least).

Here is the updated Top 10 of 2023, based on the simple formulas. Runs = (Rx5 + RBIx4) / 9 + HR/12, Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF, and ORA = Runs / Outs x 27.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 58.9  219  7.26

 3 Corbin Carroll, ARI   51.8  193  7.24

 4 Adolis Garcia, TEX    58.6  219  7.23

 5 Freddie Freeman, LAD  55.4  212  7.05

 6 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    56.1  215  7.04

 7 Randy Arozarena, TBR  51.3  200  6.92

 8 Will Smith, LAD       36.6  143  6.91

 9 Isaac Paredes, TBR    43.9  173  6.85

10 Yandy Diaz, TBR       45.1  178  6.84

The injured Alvarez is on the verge of falling out of qualification; after him there's a lot of parity. As for De La Cruz and Votto, De La Cruz has 14.1 Runs and 44 Outs; an 8.68 ORA. Votto has 5.6 Runs against 9 Outs; a 16.75 ORA.

Elly's Ongoing Baserunning Exploits

Another wild game for Elly De La Cruz as he created a half run with his running alone, ending up at 3rd after a single and pickoff thanks to a couple of throwing errors by the Colorado pitcher. Add in his 1.25 batting Runs for the solo homer and single, and Elly created 1.75 of the Reds' 8 runs yesterday in their 10th straight victory. By all accounts I've seen on social media the 7th inning fielder's choice should have been reviewed.

Inn Batter Play      Runner Rbat  Rbr Obat  Obr

1st EDLC   Strikeout EDLC             1.00

3rd EDLC   Home Run  EDLC   1.00

5th EDLC   Single    EDLC    .25  .25

           Pick Off  EDLC         .25

7th Fraley FC        EDLC                   .96

           Total            1.25  .50 1.00  .96

Votto Returns

Joey Votto made his season debut last night and drove in the tying and winning runs of Cincinnati's 5-4 win over Colorado, catapulting the Reds into 1st place in the NL Central.

Votto lined out in the 2nd inning and led off the 5th with a home run. One Run, one Out so far.

In the 6th he hit a bases-loaded, one-out single, scoring Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz.

In 2022, the runner on 3rd averaged one base and the runner on 2nd averaged 1.507 bases when the batter hit a single with the bases loaded and one out. Both runners equaled or exceeded those averages, so Votto gets credit for 2.507 bases worth of run scoring. One base is a quarter of a run, so that's 2.507 / 4 = .627 Runs Votto created with his hit.

In the 8th, Will Benson pinch-ran for Votto after he walked, so Votto didn't even get charged any baserunning Outs when Jake Fraley forced Benson at 2nd.

Final score: 1.627 Runs, 1 Out, a 43.92 ORA.

A player's Runs can be estimated by his runs scored, RBI, and home runs. Votto scored one run, drove in three, and hit one homer. A run scored is worth 5/9 Runs, an RBI is worth 4/9 Runs, and a home run is worth 1/12 Runs. So we could estimate that Votto created 5/9 + 12/9 + 1/12 = 17/9 + 1/12 = 1.972 Runs. In this case, Votto fell short of his estimate. He "only" created 1.627 Runs. (And .627 of those Runs were pretty huge for the Reds, but that's something for the people calculating Wins and Losses, not just Runs and Outs, to worry about.)

For most players, their Runs and estimated Runs will just about even out over the course of a season. Here's the top 10 qualified batters of 2023 so far, based on the simple formulas. The Outs estimate is AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF, and ORA = Runs / Outs x 27.

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Corbin Carroll, ARI   49.2  180  7.38

 3 Will Smith, LAD       36.2  135  7.23

 4 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 56.3  210  7.23

 5 Freddie Freeman, LAD  54.3  203  7.22

 6 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    55.0  206  7.21

 7 Adolis Garcia, TEX    55.5  209  7.17

 8 Marcus Semien, TEX    58.2  225  6.98

 9 Sean Murphy, ATL      38.0  152  6.75

10 Pete Alonso, NYM      46.9  189  6.71

Simple ORA Top 10 - Father's Day Edition

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Corbin Carroll, ARI   47.0  173  7.34

 3 Freddie Freeman, LAD  53.8  199  7.29

 4 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 55.7  207  7.26

 5 Will Smith, LAD       35.7  134  7.20

 6 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    53.5  203  7.11

 7 Adolis Garcia, TEX    53.5  204  7.08

 8 Marcus Semien, TEX    56.6  217  7.04

 9 Pete Alonso, NYM      46.4  182  6.88

10 Yandy Diaz, TBR       42.0  165  6.87

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

ORA = Runs / Outs * 27

Simple ORA Top 10 thru June 10th, and Analysis of Another EDLC Game

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Aaron Judge, NYY      42.7  131  8.80

 2 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 3 Adolis Garcia, TEX    51.9  182  7.70

 4 Marcus Semien, TEX    54.1  190  7.69

 5 Freddie Freeman, LAD  51.2  181  7.64

 6 Sean Murphy, ATL      36.9  138  7.22

 7 Jonah Heim, TEX       39.4  149  7.13

 8 J.D. Martinez, LAD    39.4  150  7.10

 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR       38.9  148  7.09

10 Mookie Betts, LAD     48.5  185  7.08

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

ORA = Runs / Outs * 27

In 22 PA so far, Elly De La Cruz has an estimated 4.2 Runs and 13 Outs - an 8.71 ORA. Yesterday EDLC had another sneaky-productive game in the Reds' 8-4 win over the Cardinals - just one single in four at-bats, but with a run scored and RBI. The simple formula estimates he produced one Run and three Outs (because he had three hitless at-bats). The real version of ORA (using 2022 percentages) says Elly did in fact create just about one full Run, but cost the Reds almost a full Out less than estimated, because one of those hitless at-bats was a fielder's choice where both he and the runner were safe.

Inn Batter     Event            Runner  Runs  Outs

2nd De La Cruz Strikeout                     1.000

3rd De La Cruz Single           McLain  .246

                                India   .298

3rd Stephenson Forceout         EDLC          .040

7th De La Cruz Fielder's Choice EDLC    .250

7th Steer      Double           EDLC    .177

9th De La Cruz Pop out          EDLC         1.000

               Batting                  .569 1.980

               Baserunning              .402  .060

               Total                    .971 2.040

In the 3rd, De La Cruz singled, driving in Matt McLain from 3rd and moving Jonathan India from 1st to 3rd. In 2022, with runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs, the runner on 3rd advanced .986 bases on a single, and the runner on 1st advanced 1.191 bases. Both runners exceeded those averages and both runners scored, so EDLC gets credit for the averages: 2.177 total bases, worth a quarter-run each, or .544 Runs (.246 for McLain and .298 for India).

De La Cruz was later forced at 2nd, so he earns no runs for his own base, and .04 of the out. When a runner is forced out on a play, the batter gets blamed for a percentage of the out equal to the percentage of times the type of play resulted in at least one out. In this case, a groundball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with a runner on 1st and one out resulted in at least one out 96% of the time in 2022. So Tyler Stephenson gets charged 96% of the out, and De La Cruz gets blamed for the rest.

In the 5th De La Cruz walked and stole second but was stranded at third, so he earned no runs for his efforts here.

In the 7th Elly reached on the fielder's choice and then scored on Spencer Steer's double. The runner on 1st averaged 2.292 bases when the batter doubled with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in 2022. De La Cruz advanced three bases - he went from first to home - so Steer gets credit for the average and De La Cruz gets credit for the rest: .708 bases, worth .177 Runs.

Elly De La Cruz continues to be an electric baserunner, creating around .4 Runs against just .06 Outs on the basepaths in this game (and that despite his stolen base leading to naught). It's VERY early, just five games into Elly's career (Eric Davis had four separate "tryouts" of 10+ games as a starter in his rookie season of '84), but #44 is looking like the Reds' #44 of forty years ago, except he's a year younger than Eric Davis was when he made his debut, and three years younger than Eric was when he permanently broke into the starting lineup.

Elly's Double on the Hardest Hit High Pitch Ever was Worthless, but his Two Walks Created About 0.87 Runs!

It's been a while since I did an ORA explainer, so what better time than the MLB debut of Elly De La Cruz.

In his very first plate appearance, in the 1st inning, De La Cruz walked, moving fellow rookie phenom Matt McLain to 2nd. Both players went on to score, so De La Cruz gets credit for one quarter of McLain's run and one quarter of his own run - 0.5 Runs total. De La Cruz went to 2nd on Spencer Steer's HBP (and Steer gets the credit for that advance), then scored from 2nd on Tyler Stephenson's single.

On bases loaded singles, the runner on 2nd averaged 1.507 bases in 2022. De La Cruz exceeded the average - he advanced two bases to score - so Stephenson gets credit for the 1.507 average and De La Cruz gets credit for the rest: 0.493 bases. A base is worth a quarter of a run, so Stephenson earns 0.377 batting Runs for scoring De La Cruz from 2nd, and De La Cruz earns 0.123 baserunning Runs for scoring from 2nd on a single.

Inn Batter     Event  Runner      Runs  Outs

1st De La Cruz Walk   McLain     0.250

                      De La Cruz 0.250

1st Stephenson Single De La Cruz 0.123

               Batting           0.500

               Baserunning       0.123

               Total             0.623

After his very first PA, De La Cruz had created about 0.623 Runs, 0.5 with his bat and 0.123 with his running.

In the 3rd Inning, De La Cruz scorched a double at 112 MPH off the bat. Unfortunately, no Reds scored that inning and De La Cruz was left stranded at 2nd, so that double was worthless.

In the 5th, De La Cruz walked, moving Jonathan India to 2nd. De La Cruz was ultimately stranded again, but India went on to score, so De La Cruz gets credit for another 0.25 Runs for advancing India to 2nd.

Inn Batter     Event  Runner      Runs  Outs

1st De La Cruz Walk   McLain     0.250

                      De La Cruz 0.250

1st Stephenson Single De La Cruz 0.123

5th De La Cruz Walk   India      0.250

               Batting           0.750

               Baserunning       0.123

               Total             0.873

De La Cruz grounded out to end the 6th and struck out to end the 8th inning of the Reds' epic come-from-behind walkoff win against the Dodgers. But he created 0.873 Runs, far more than the five-ninths the simple formula estimates for one run scored and no RBI. He moved a destined-to-score runner one base on both of his walks, scored himself following the first walk, and helped himself by scoring from 2nd on a single. 0.5 plus 0.25 plus 0.123 equals 0.873 Runs.

Inn Batter     Event     Runner      Runs  Outs

1st De La Cruz Walk      McLain     0.250

                         De La Cruz 0.250

1st Stephenson Single    De La Cruz 0.123

5th De La Cruz Walk      India      0.250

6th De La Cruz Groundout De La Cruz       1.000

8th De La Cruz Strikeout De La Cruz       1.000

               Batting              0.750 1.684

               Baserunning          0.123 0.316

               Total                0.873 2.000

The batter was only out 68.6% of the time when he hit a groundball that wasn't a hit with two outs and runners on 1st and 3rd in 2022, which was De La Cruz's situation in the 6th inning. So he earned 0.686 of a batting Out for the groundball non-hit and 0.314 of a baserunning Out for being the one to eat the putout. (Similarly, De La Cruz earned 0.998 batting Outs for the called third strike and 0.002 baserunning Outs for being put out in the 8th inning.)

Speaking of simple ORA, here is the Top 10 thru yesterday's games. The Rangers have three players in the Top 5, the Dodgers have three players in the Top 10, and the Braves have three players in the Top 12 (Olson is 11th and Acuna is 12th). Elly De La Cruz has an estimated 5/9 Runs against two Outs - a 7.50 ORA - after one Big League game. (His actual ORA is much higher, based on 2022 percentages: 0.873 / 2 x 27 = 11.79.)

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Aaron Judge, NYY      42.7  131  8.80

 2 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   47.1  150  8.48

 3 Marcus Semien, TEX    53.5  179  8.07

 4 Adolis Garcia, TEX    51.0  175  7.87

 5 Jonah Heim, TEX       38.8  139  7.54

 6 Yandy Diaz, TBR       38.9  141  7.45

 7 Freddie Freeman, LAD  46.6  173  7.27

 8 Sean Murphy, ATL      35.4  133  7.18

 9 J.D. Martinez, LAD    36.5  138  7.14

10 Max Muncy, LAD        41.7  159  7.08

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

ORA = Runs / Outs * 27

Simple ORA Top 10 (thru 6/3)

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Aaron Judge, NYY      42.7  131  8.80

 2 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   45.0  142  8.56

 3 Marcus Semien, TEX    51.1  170  8.11

 4 Adolis Garcia, TEX    48.9  169  7.82

 5 Yandy Diaz, TBR       36.8  134  7.41

 6 Sean Murphy, ATL      33.9  126  7.27

 7 Max Muncy, LAD        40.7  152  7.23

 8 Jonah Heim, TEX       35.4  134  7.13

 9 Freddie Freeman, LAD  43.6  166  7.09

10 Matt Olson, ATL       44.5  171  7.03

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

ORA = Runs / Outs * 27