In 22 PA so far, Elly De La Cruz has an estimated 4.2 Runs and 13 Outs - an 8.71 ORA. Yesterday EDLC had another sneaky-productive game in the Reds' 8-4 win over the Cardinals - just one single in four at-bats, but with a run scored and RBI. The simple formula estimates he produced one Run and three Outs (because he had three hitless at-bats). The real version of ORA (using 2022 percentages) says Elly did in fact create just about one full Run, but cost the Reds almost a full Out less than estimated, because one of those hitless at-bats was a fielder's choice where both he and the runner were safe.
In the 3rd, De La Cruz singled, driving in Matt McLain from 3rd and moving Jonathan India from 1st to 3rd. In 2022, with runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs, the runner on 3rd advanced .986 bases on a single, and the runner on 1st advanced 1.191 bases. Both runners exceeded those averages and both runners scored, so EDLC gets credit for the averages: 2.177 total bases, worth a quarter-run each, or .544 Runs (.246 for McLain and .298 for India).
De La Cruz was later forced at 2nd, so he earns no runs for his own base, and .04 of the out. When a runner is forced out on a play, the batter gets blamed for a percentage of the out equal to the percentage of times the type of play resulted in at least one out. In this case, a groundball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with a runner on 1st and one out resulted in at least one out 96% of the time in 2022. So Tyler Stephenson gets charged 96% of the out, and De La Cruz gets blamed for the rest.
In the 5th De La Cruz walked and stole second but was stranded at third, so he earned no runs for his efforts here.
In the 7th Elly reached on the fielder's choice and then scored on Spencer Steer's double. The runner on 1st averaged 2.292 bases when the batter doubled with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in 2022. De La Cruz advanced three bases - he went from first to home - so Steer gets credit for the average and De La Cruz gets credit for the rest: .708 bases, worth .177 Runs.
Elly De La Cruz continues to be an electric baserunner, creating around .4 Runs against just .06 Outs on the basepaths in this game (and that despite his stolen base leading to naught). It's VERY early, just five games into Elly's career (Eric Davis had four separate "tryouts" of 10+ games as a starter in his rookie season of '84), but #44 is looking like the Reds' #44 of forty years ago, except he's a year younger than Eric Davis was when he made his debut, and three years younger than Eric was when he permanently broke into the starting lineup.
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