It's been a while since I did an ORA explainer, so what better time than the MLB debut of Elly De La Cruz.
In his very first plate appearance, in the 1st inning, De La Cruz walked, moving fellow rookie phenom Matt McLain to 2nd. Both players went on to score, so De La Cruz gets credit for one quarter of McLain's run and one quarter of his own run - 0.5 Runs total. De La Cruz went to 2nd on Spencer Steer's HBP (and Steer gets the credit for that advance), then scored from 2nd on Tyler Stephenson's single.
On bases loaded singles, the runner on 2nd averaged 1.507 bases in 2022. De La Cruz exceeded the average - he advanced two bases to score - so Stephenson gets credit for the 1.507 average and De La Cruz gets credit for the rest: 0.493 bases. A base is worth a quarter of a run, so Stephenson earns 0.377 batting Runs for scoring De La Cruz from 2nd, and De La Cruz earns 0.123 baserunning Runs for scoring from 2nd on a single.
After his very first PA, De La Cruz had created about 0.623 Runs, 0.5 with his bat and 0.123 with his running.
In the 3rd Inning, De La Cruz scorched a double at 112 MPH off the bat. Unfortunately, no Reds scored that inning and De La Cruz was left stranded at 2nd, so that double was worthless.
In the 5th, De La Cruz walked, moving Jonathan India to 2nd. De La Cruz was ultimately stranded again, but India went on to score, so De La Cruz gets credit for another 0.25 Runs for advancing India to 2nd.
De La Cruz grounded out to end the 6th and struck out to end the 8th inning of the Reds' epic come-from-behind walkoff win against the Dodgers. But he created 0.873 Runs, far more than the five-ninths the simple formula estimates for one run scored and no RBI. He moved a destined-to-score runner one base on both of his walks, scored himself following the first walk, and helped himself by scoring from 2nd on a single. 0.5 plus 0.25 plus 0.123 equals 0.873 Runs.
The batter was only out 68.6% of the time when he hit a groundball that wasn't a hit with two outs and runners on 1st and 3rd in 2022, which was De La Cruz's situation in the 6th inning. So he earned 0.686 of a batting Out for the groundball non-hit and 0.314 of a baserunning Out for being the one to eat the putout. (Similarly, De La Cruz earned 0.998 batting Outs for the called third strike and 0.002 baserunning Outs for being put out in the 8th inning.)
Speaking of simple ORA, here is the Top 10 thru yesterday's games. The Rangers have three players in the Top 5, the Dodgers have three players in the Top 10, and the Braves have three players in the Top 12 (Olson is 11th and Acuna is 12th). Elly De La Cruz has an estimated 5/9 Runs against two Outs - a 7.50 ORA - after one Big League game. (His actual ORA is much higher, based on 2022 percentages: 0.873 / 2 x 27 = 11.79.)
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