Ohtani Doing His Barry Bonds Impression

With Mike Trout injured and Ohtani red-hot (.359/.472/.906 with 23 HR in 43 games, and an 11.47 sORA, since May 30th), Shohei Ohtani has been getting the Barry Bonds treatment. That means fewer opportunities to drive in runners, so he has to make the most of every opportunity to get on base and score. Indeed, Ohtani had three walks and a strikeout in four appearances yesterday, but even the strikeout led to him reaching 1st base via a wild pitch and later scoring on Taylor Ward's home run.

Inn Batter Event     Runner Runs Outs

1st Ohtani Walk

4th Ohtani Walk      Ohtani  .25

    Moniak Double    Ohtani  .18

5th Ohtani Strikeout Ohtani  .25

7th Ohtani Walk

    Ward   GIDP      Ohtani       .05

           Total             .68  .05

The 1st-inning walk led to naught. In the 4th he walked again and this time scored on Mickey Moniak's double. He earned .25 of his run for getting to 1st and another .18 for scoring from 1st on the double, .43 total. In the 5th was the strikeout/wild pitch. In the 7th he drew his third walk, went to 2nd on a single, and was forced at 3rd in Ward's 53 GIDP. Ohtani deserves just a little bit of the blame for the forceout, about 5% of it.

The simple formulas estimate he created 1.11 Runs (5/9 for each of his two runs scored) and 1 Out (for the hitless at-bat). Actually he was even more efficient than that: only .68 Runs created, but a tiny fraction of an Out (none for the hitless at-bat and .05 for the walk and forceout). Aim small, miss small.

I suppose it's worth mentioning that Barry Bonds never pitched into the 7th inning to earn the W; but that's what Shohei Ohtani also did yesterday. Anyways, Ohtani still leads MLB in simple ORA. Freddie Freeman has jumped into the NL lead after going 2-for-4 with a homer, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI yesterday.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    77.3  267  7.81

 2 Freddie Freeman, LAD  76.3  269  7.66

 3 Matt Olson, ATL       79.9  282  7.65

 4 Mookie Betts, LAD     74.8  273  7.40

 5 Adolis Garcia, TEX    78.7  288  7.38

 6 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 74.9  276  7.33

 7 Will Smith, LAD       51.4  195  7.12

 8 Corbin Carroll, ARI   63.1  250  6.82

 9 Isaac Paredes, TBR    52.3  212  6.66

10 Jonah Heim, TEX       57.1  233  6.61

Corbin Carroll's Wacky Game

Rookie phenom Corbin Carroll had a very rookie phenom-type game yesterday. He tripled and later scored on an error, he reached 3rd base on a strikeout, he singled with two men on, and he stole two bases only to be thrown out at home on a fielder's choice.

Inn Batter  Event     Runner  Runs  Outs

1st Carroll Triple    Perdomo .750

                      Carroll .750

    Gurriel ROE       Carroll .245

2nd Carroll Strikeout Marte   .003

                      Carroll .750

    Walker  Single    Carroll .007

4th Carroll Lineout   Carroll      1.000

6th Carroll Single    Thomas  .249

                      Marte   .250

                      Carroll .250

8th Gurriel FC        Carroll       .793

9th Carroll Strikeout Carroll      1.000

            Batting          2.253 1.997

            Baserunning      1.001  .796

            Total            3.254 2.793

Here's another breakdown of his events and the runs and outs they earned him:

Inn Event      Runs  Outs

1st Triple    1.745

2nd Strikeout  .760

4th Lineout         1.000

6th Single     .749

8th HBP              .793

    Stole 2B

    Stole 3B

9th Strikeout       1.000

Total         3.254 2.793

Carroll's triple was worth 1.745 Runs because it got Geraldo Perdomo home from 1st (.75 Runs), got him to 3rd (.75 Runs), and led to him scoring on Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s groundball (.245 Runs). Carroll's hit by pitch was worth .793 Outs because it led to him being thrown out at home on Gurriel's fielder's choice, and .793 of the out was Carroll's fault (by 2022 percentages).

With 3 runs scored, 2 RBI, and 3 hitless at-bats, the simple formulas estimate Carroll created (3*5)/9 + (2*4)/9 = 15/9 + 8/9 = 2.556 Runs against 3 Outs. So the simple formulas seriously underrate Carroll's performance yesterday, due to the fact that he actually created 3/4 of Perdomo's run and almost all of his own in the first inning, instead of the 4/9 estimated for an RBI and 5/9 for a run scored.

Inn Event      Runs  Outs  estR  estO

1st Triple    1.745       1.000

2nd Strikeout  .760        .556 1.000

4th Lineout         1.000       1.000

6th Single     .749       1.000

8th HBP              .793

    Stole 2B

    Stole 3B

9th Strikeout       1.000       1.000

Total         3.254 2.793 2.556 3.000

Speaking of the simple formulas, Carroll is hanging in at 8th in the Simple ORA Top 10. Not mentioned above, because Carroll didn't hit one yesterday, but a home run is worth 1/12 of a Run in the simple formula.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    75.0  265  7.64

 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 74.4  265  7.58

 3 Matt Olson, ATL       76.7  276  7.51

 4 Adolis Garcia, TEX    78.1  284  7.43

 5 Mookie Betts, LAD     72.8  266  7.39

 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  72.1  264  7.37

 7 Will Smith, LAD       49.0  191  6.92

 8 Corbin Carroll, ARI   60.9  241  6.83

 9 Isaac Paredes, TBR    51.2  207  6.68

10 Josh Naylor, CLE      56.3  230  6.60

Simple ORA Top 10 All-Star Break Edition

It's a six-way race for the Simple ORA lead at the break, as the top 6 are all within 13 ORA points of each other. The red-hot Mookie Betts has inched ahead of Matt Olson by one one-thousandth of a run, while Shohei Ohtani maintains a slim AL lead over Adolis Garcia.

The simple formulas are surprisingly accurate estimates of real Runs and Outs produced; still, any of these players (or even someone outside the Top 6) could conceivably be leading MLB in real ORA. We won't know until the season is over and the retrosheet files are released.

The simple formulas (ORA is the same formula whether it's real or simple ORA):

Runs = R*5/9 + RBI*4/9 + HR/12

Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

ORA = Runs / Outs * 27

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Mookie Betts, LAD     69.7  252  7.470

 2 Matt Olson, ATL       73.3  265  7.469

 3 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    69.2  252  7.42

 4 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 70.1  256  7.39

 5 Adolis Garcia, TEX    73.6  270  7.36

 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  68.5  252  7.34

 7 Will Smith, LAD       46.0  177  7.01

 8 Isaac Paredes, TBR    50.1  196  6.90

 9 Corbin Carroll, ARI   57.8  227  6.88

10 Max Muncy, LAD        51.4  206  6.74

Hans, Dode, Greasy, and Elly

The only Cincinnati Reds to ever steal three bases in one inning.

Elly - De La Cruz, that is - may be hitting .328 in the first 29 games of his career, but even so he's proving the uselessness of batting average as a statistic in comparison to Civil War-era metrics. Why should Elly ever have to compare his batting average to players who get to 1st base and stop there (like a certain Miami Marlins infielder)?

Instead, Elly (and every other player) should be judged by his runs produced and hands lost--err, outs made. How many runs did he create for the Reds yesterday? Well, he scored two. How many outs did he make? Well, he had two hits in five at-bats, so probably three. It can't possibly be that simple, can it? Let's find out.

In the 1st inning, Elly De La Cruz forced Jonathan India at 2nd. Since it was a forceout, Elly's share of the out is equal to the percentage of times this play type (groundball non-hit, two outs, runner on 1st) results in at least one out: 97.5% in 2022.

Inn Event    Rbat Rbr Obat Obr Runs Outs

1st Forceout           .97           .97

In the 4th, with the Reds trailing 4-1, De La Cruz led off with a single and an error, went to 3rd on a balk, and scored on Joey Votto's game-tying 3-run homer. He earned three of his four bases here and therefore three-fourths of his run, one fourth with his batting and one half with his baserunning.

Inn Event    Rbat Rbr Obat Obr Runs Outs

1st Forceout           .97           .97

4th Single    .25 .50           .75

In the 5th, down 5-4, De La Cruz struck out, but Matt McLain stole 2nd on the play and then scored on Jake Fraley's double. The runner averaged .048 bases when batters struck out with a runner on 1st and one out in 2022. Elly deserves credit for that .048 of McLain's base and therefore .012 of his run.

Inn Event     Rbat Rbr Obat Obr Runs Outs

1st Forceout            .97           .97

4th Single     .25 .50           .75

5th Strikeout  .01     1.00      .01 1.00

And then in the 7th, still tied at 5-5, Elly singled home the winning run in TJ Friedl, then stole 2nd, stole 3rd, and stole home. That's five bases and 1.25 Runs: .5 batting Runs for getting Friedl home from 3rd and himself to 1st, and .75 baserunning Runs for the three stolen bases.

Inn Event     Rbat  Rbr Obat Obr Runs Outs

1st Forceout             .97           .97

4th Single     .25  .50           .75

5th Strikeout  .01      1.00      .01 1.00

7th Single     .50                .50

    Stole 2B        .25           .25

    Stole 3B        .25           .25

    Stole Home      .25           .25

9th Lineout              .99 .01      1.00

Total          .76 1.25 2.97 .01 2.01 2.97

By the old ways, Elly only made two outs yesterday - he struck out and lined out. His first at-bat resulted in Jonathan India being put out, not him. But since India was forced out, and it was Elly’s groundball that forced him, I determined Elly gets the blame for almost all of that out - about 97% of it.

With a single and three stolen bases in the 7th inning, Elly got all the way around the bases and created a whole run on the power of his own dynamite bat and legs. His 4th-inning single and accompanying baserunning feats/fielding errors only got him to 3rd before Votto homered; however, he also drove in a runner from 3rd with the 7th-inning single. So he created two runs exactly (actually 2.01 because I give him .01 of McLain's 5th-inning run for the strikeout/stolen base).

By the most simple reckoning Elly scored two runs and made three outs. The in-depth method says he ACTUALLY created 2.01 Runs and 2.97 Outs. And unlike batting average, these numbers actually have meaning; if an entire team plays at Elly’s level last night for nine innings, they score 18 runs: 2 runs per 3 outs, times nine innings.

1.25 of Elly's 2.01 Runs yesterday were baserunning Runs. Last year, Albert Pujols created 0.98 baserunning Runs all year (351 plate appearances).

Joey Votto's Game in Washington on 7/5/23

In the 2nd inning, Joey Votto hit a two-out, solo home run to tie the game at 1.

Inn Event    Runs Outs

2nd Home Run 1.00

In the 3rd, Votto hit a two-out single, but Jake Fraley was thrown out at 3rd base. The runner was out just 1% of the time in 2022 when the batter hit a two-out single with a runner on 1st. That's the percentage of Fraley's out that Votto is responsible for.

Inn Event    Runs Outs

2nd Home Run 1.00

3rd Single         .01

Votto struck out in the 5th. In the 7th inning he singled with Fraley on 1st again, and this time Fraley was safe at 3rd. Both Fraley and Votto were destined to score, so their bases are worth runs. The runner on 1st averaged 1.269 bases when the batter singled with no outs and a runner on 1st. Votto gets credit for that 1.269 average, since Fraley exceeded it, worth 1.269 / 4 = .32 Runs. Votto gets another .25 Runs for his own base, .57 total for the single.

Inn Event     Runs Outs

2nd Home Run  1.00

3rd Single          .01

5th Strikeout      1.00

7th Single     .57

Joe La Sorsa then balked, sending Fraley home and Votto to 2nd. Votto earns another base and quarter of a run, only this one gets chalked up to his baserunning (Rbr), as opposed to his batting (Rbat). Votto doesn't get any credit for going to 3rd when TJ Friedl was hit by a pitch or for scoring on Matt McLain's single, but still, a total of .82 Runs resulted from his single (.57 batting and .25 baserunning).

Inn Event     Rbat  Rbr Runs Outs

2nd Home Run  1.00      1.00

3rd Single                    .01

5th Strikeout                1.00

7th Single     .57  .25  .82

Votto struck out again in the 8th. He walked to load the bases with two outs in the 9th, but was stranded. His totals for the day, based on 2022 percentages: 1.82 Runs (1.57 batting and .25 baserunning) against 2.01 Outs (all batting).

Inn Event     Rbat  Rbr Runs Outs

2nd Home Run  1.00      1.00

3rd Single                    .01

5th Strikeout                1.00

7th Single     .57  .25  .82

8th Strikeout                1.00

9th Walk

Total         1.57  .25 1.82 2.01

This is a bit more than the 1.64 Runs I'd estimate from a home run (1/12 Run), two runs scored ((2*5)/9 Runs), and RBI (4/9 Run), probably because he did a big "little thing" that didn't earn him any runs or RBI: he moved Jake Fraley from 1st to 3rd on a single.

De La Cruz and the Reds Continue to Declare Independence from Boring Baseball

The way ORA works is that only runs that are actually scored and outs that are actually recorded count towards a player's record. It seems obvious, but so much of modern analytics seems like an exercise in woulda/coulda/shoulda. ORA only reckons with what actually happened.

For instance, in the 1st inning of the Reds' 8-4 win over Washington yesterday, two runners scored: Matt McLain and Jonathan India. McLain scored before Elly De La Cruz came to the plate, but Elly's single moved India from 1st to 3rd.

In 2022, when batters singled with a runner on 1st and one out, the runner averaged 1.266 bases. Since India advanced two bases, the batter De La Cruz gets credit for the average advance and India the baserunner gets credit for the rest (.734 bases). If a base is worth a quarter run, then De La Cruz earns about .32 of India's run. The rest belongs to India himself, who singled and went to 3rd on Elly's single, and Spencer Steer, who drove him in from 3rd. (So, .43 to India, .32 to EDLC, .25 to Steer.)

Inn Batter     Event    Runner Runs Outs

1st EDLC       Single   India   .32

3rd EDLC       Single   EDLC    .25

               Stole 2B EDLC    .25

    Stephenson Flyout   EDLC    .14

6th            CS 2B    EDLC        1.00

8th EDLC       Sac Fly  McLain  .15 1.00

               Batting          .72 1.00

               Baserunning      .39 1.00

               Total           1.11 2.00

In the 3rd, De La Cruz was one of the three runners who scored, so he earns .25 Runs for getting to 1st on a single, .25 Runs for stealing 2nd, and .14 for going to 3rd on Tyler Stephenson's flyout. The .25 for the single goes in his batting Runs and the .25 and .14 for the advances to 2nd and 3rd go in his baserunning Runs. The .14 is because the runner on 2nd averaged .427 bases when the batter hit a fly ball non-hit with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. The batter gets credit for the average (.427 bases, worth about .11 Runs) and the runner gets credit for the rest (.573 bases, or about .14 Runs).

De La Cruz singled again in the 4th but was stranded at 3B; no runs scored aside from India's solo homer. In the 6th he hit his fourth straight single but was caught stealing 2nd base.

In the 8th he lined out, scoring McLain from 3rd. He gets .15 of McLain's run because the runner averaged .62 bases when batters hit a line drive that wasn't a hit with a runner on 3rd and one out. Final tally for De La Cruz's Independence Day: about 1.11 Runs (.72 batting and .39 baserunning) against 2 Outs (1 each batting and baserunning).

After besmirching "woulda/coulda/shoulda" sabermetrics, I too have a formula that estimates Runs Created (derived from the long method outlined above), and it's simple: a run scored is worth 5/9 of a Run, an RBI is worth 4/9 of a Run, and a home run is worth 1/12 of a Run.

Elly went 4-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI, so my simple formulas estimate he created 1 Run (5/9 for the run scored and 4/9 for the RBI) against 2 outs (a caught stealing and sac fly). It could be that dynamic baserunners like De La Cruz create more Runs than estimated because they're more involved in their own run scoring than a typical player. Elly's predecessor wearing #44, Eric Davis, certainly was.

Here's the up-to-date Top 10 based on the simple formulas:

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 69.1  242  7.71

 2 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    66.7  244  7.38

 3 Matt Olson, ATL       69.2  254  7.36

 4 Mookie Betts, LAD     63.9  241  7.16

 5 Adolis Garcia, TEX    67.4  257  7.08

 6 Corbin Carroll, ARI   55.8  213  7.08

 7 Freddie Freeman, LAD  61.8  243  6.87

 8 Randy Arozarena, TBR  56.6  225  6.79

 9 Will Smith, LAD       41.9  168  6.73

10 Isaac Paredes, TBR    46.9  189  6.71

The Braves' Acuna and Olson have both created an estimated 69 Runs, but Olson has paid 12 more Outs than Acuna has in creating them. After his 3-for-6, two-homer performance yesterday, Jonathan India has an even 6.00 Simple ORA, virtually tied with superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.03), Mike Trout (6.02), and Juan Soto (5.96).

Simple ORA Top 10 thru July 1st - Acuna Back on Top

Atlanta's Acuna continues his bid for the first ever 40-homer, 70-steal season (and the first 40-60, and 30-60, and 40-50 seasons. And just the third ever 30-50 season, which he might have by August.)

He's also back on top in Simple ORA. In Friday's 16-4 shellacking of the Marlins, Acuna went 2-for-3 with a homer, 3 runs scored, and 2 RBI. By the simple estimate where a run scored is worth 5/9 of a Run, an RBI is worth 4/9 of a Run, and a home run is worth 1/12 of a Run, Acuna was worth an estimated 2.64 Runs against 2 Outs (a hitless at-bat and a caught stealing).

Here are the plays where Acuna created his Runs and Outs, and their actual values (based on the 2022 percentages):

Inn Batter Play       Runner Runs Outs

1st Acuna  Single     Acuna   .25

    Riley  Double     Acuna   .18

2nd Acuna  Groundout  Acuna       1.00

4th Acuna  CS         Acuna       1.00

6th Acuna  HBP        Acuna   .25

           Wild Pitch Acuna   .25

    Olson  Single     Acuna   .06

7th Acuna  Home Run   Harris  .75

                      Acuna  1.00

           Batting           2.25  .97

           Baserunning        .49 1.03

           Total             2.74 2.00

In other words, Acuna created .25 Runs (batting) when he led of the 1st with a single and .18 Runs (baserunning) when he scored on Austin Riley's double (Riley earned the other .57 of Acuna's first run). Acuna earned one Out for grounding out in the 2nd (.97 batting for hitting a groundball that wasn't a hit, .03 baserunning for being put out). In the 4th he walked and stole 2nd but was caught stealing 3rd, so he earns a baserunning Out for his troubles there.

In the 6th he was hit by a pitch (.25 batting), went to 2nd on a wild pitch (.25 baserunning), and later scored on Olson's two-out single (.06 baserunning; Olson earned the other .44 of Acuna's second run). And finally, Acuna's 7th-inning two-run homer earned him .75 Runs for driving in Michael Harris II from 1st and a full Run for his own circling of the bases. Total: 2.74 Runs (2.25 batting and .49 baserunning), slightly more than the simple formula estimated, and about a sixth of the Braves' 16 that game.

That same game, Matt Olson created an estimated 4.61 Runs on the strength of two home runs, 4 runs scored and 5 RBI. He now leads MLB in estimated Runs and is up to 3rd place in Simple ORA, right behind Ohtani.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 67.4  236  7.71

 2 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    65.6  235  7.54

 3 Matt Olson, ATL       68.1  246  7.48

 4 Mookie Betts, LAD     62.3  234  7.19

 5 Adolis Garcia, TEX    64.9  244  7.18

 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  61.3  233  7.10

 7 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  210  6.98

 8 Will Smith, LAD       40.9  162  6.81

 9 Randy Arozarena, TBR  54.9  220  6.74

10 Yandy Diaz, TBR       48.9  196  6.73