Friday, June 30, 2023

The Best Player in the World is Now Number 1 in Simple ORA

Shohei Ohtani had a a pair of strikeouts, a pair of walks, and a two-run homer in the Angels' 9-7 loss to the White Sox last night.

He was stranded after the first (intentional) walk and was forced out at 2B after the second one when Mike Moustakas grounded into a double play. In 2022, with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out, a groundball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt resulted in at least one out on the play 95% of the time. That's Moustakas's share of the blame for Ohtani's out; Ohtani has to eat the other 5%.

Mike Trout was on 1B when Ohtani homered, so Ohtani earns .75 Runs for Trout and a full run for himself.

Here's the final tally for Ohtani's five plate appearances:

Inn Event     Runs Outs
1st Strikeout      1.00
2nd Strikeout      1.00
4th Int. Walk
7th Walk            .05
9th Home Run  1.75

Total         1.75 2.05

The simple formulas say he had one home run (1/12 Runs), one run scored (5/9 Runs), and 2 RBI ((2*4)/9 = 8/9 Runs), which adds up to 1/12 + 13/9, or 1.53 Runs, and 3 AB - 1 hit = 2 Outs.

Here is the updated Top 10, based on the simple formulas. ORA (and sORA), like ERA, is Runs / Outs * 27.

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA
 1 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    64.0  230  7.51
 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.7  231  7.44
 3 Adolis Garcia, TEX    64.3  237  7.33
 4 Freddie Freeman, LAD  59.8  226  7.15
 5 Will Smith, LAD       40.3  154  7.07
 6 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  210  6.98
 7 Matt Olson, ATL       62.5  243  6.94
 8 Mookie Betts, LAD     58.2  232  6.78
 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR       47.3  189  6.76
10 Max Muncy, LAD        45.6  184  6.69

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