Breaking Down De La Cruz's Cycle

In the second inning, Elly De La Cruz led off with a double and then scored on Jake Fraley's two-run homer:

Inn Batter Event  Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double EDLC    .50

In the third, Elly hit a two-run homer of his own, scoring Jonathan India from 3rd.

Inn Batter Event    Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double   EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run India   .25

                    EDLC   1.00

           Batting         1.75

           Baserunning

           Total           1.75

In the fifth, De La Cruz singled with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. In 2022, the runner on 2nd averaged 1.452 bases and the runner on 1st averaged 1.229 bases when the batter hit a single with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. Matt McLain scored and India went from 1st to 3rd, so both runners exceeded those averages. After De La Cruz stole 2nd, Joey Votto hit a three-run homer. So Elly earned 1.452 / 4 = .363 Runs for driving in McLain, 1.229 / 4 = .307 Runs for advancing India to 3rd, and 1 / 4 = .25 Runs for getting himself to 1st; that's .92 total batting Runs for the single. He also earned .25 baserunning Runs for stealing 2nd.

Inn Batter Event       Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double      EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run    India   .25

                       EDLC   1.00

5th EDLC   Single      McLain  .36

                       India   .31

                       EDLC    .25

5th        Stolen Base EDLC    .25

           Batting            2.67

           Baserunning         .25

           Total              2.92

In the sixth, De La Cruz tripled to finish the Reds' first cycle since 1989, scoring India from 1st. He was later caught stealing home, his first out of the game and the first caught stealing of his career. In the eighth he made his only batting Out: a flyout.

Inn Batter Event           Runner Runs Outs

2nd EDLC   Double          EDLC    .50

3rd EDLC   Home Run        India   .25

                           EDLC   1.00

5th EDLC   Single          McLain  .36

                           India   .31

                           EDLC    .25

5th        Stolen Base     EDLC    .25

6th EDLC   Triple          India   .75

6th        Caught Stealing EDLC        1.00

8th EDLC   Flyout          EDLC        1.00

           Batting                3.42 1.00

           Baserunning             .25 1.00

           Total                  3.67 2.00

Elly had the home run, 3 runs scored, and 4 RBI, so the simple formula estimates he created (3x5 + 4x4)/9 + 1/12 = (15 + 16)/9 + 1/12 = 31/9 + 1/12 = 3.53 Runs, a little less than the 3.67 Runs he actually created (according to the 2022 percentages, at least).

Here is the updated Top 10 of 2023, based on the simple formulas. Runs = (Rx5 + RBIx4) / 9 + HR/12, Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF, and ORA = Runs / Outs x 27.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   48.6  153  8.58

 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 58.9  219  7.26

 3 Corbin Carroll, ARI   51.8  193  7.24

 4 Adolis Garcia, TEX    58.6  219  7.23

 5 Freddie Freeman, LAD  55.4  212  7.05

 6 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    56.1  215  7.04

 7 Randy Arozarena, TBR  51.3  200  6.92

 8 Will Smith, LAD       36.6  143  6.91

 9 Isaac Paredes, TBR    43.9  173  6.85

10 Yandy Diaz, TBR       45.1  178  6.84

The injured Alvarez is on the verge of falling out of qualification; after him there's a lot of parity. As for De La Cruz and Votto, De La Cruz has 14.1 Runs and 44 Outs; an 8.68 ORA. Votto has 5.6 Runs against 9 Outs; a 16.75 ORA.