Thursday, June 29, 2023

Garcia Retakes the Lead

Garcia's estimated Runs and Outs for his game yesterday vs Detroit:

1 home run = 1/12 Runs
2 runs scored = (2*5)/9 = 10/9 Runs
3 RBI = (3*4)/9 = 12/9 Runs

1/12 + 22/9 = 2.53 Runs

5 AB - 3 hits = 2 Outs

His actual Runs and Outs (based on 2022 percentages):

Inn Batter Event     Runner  Runs Outs
1st Garcia ROE       Garcia  .250
    Duran  Single    Garcia  .068
2nd Garcia Strikeout Garcia       1.00
6th Garcia Home Run  Seager  .750
                     Garcia 1.000
7th Garcia Double    Smith   .500

           Batting          2.275 1.00
           Baserunning       .293
           Total            2.568 1.00

About 2.57 Runs against 1 Out. Most of the .25 for reaching 1st on an error and all of the .068 for scoring from 2nd on Ezequiel Duran's single was baserunning Runs; the rest was batting Runs.

Garcia retakes the lead (in a very tight three-way race) in simple ORA:

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA
 1 Adolis Garcia, TEX    64.3  233  7.45
 2 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.7  231  7.44
 3 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    62.4  228  7.39
 4 Will Smith, LAD       40.3  154  7.07
 5 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  208  7.05
 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  57.9  225  6.95
 7 Matt Olson, ATL       62.5  243  6.94
 8 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.8  185  6.83
 9 Ketel Marte, ARI      54.1  218  6.71
10 Randy Arozarena, TBR  52.4  213  6.64

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