Saturday, July 22, 2023

Ohtani Doing His Barry Bonds Impression

With Mike Trout injured and Ohtani red-hot (.359/.472/.906 with 23 HR in 43 games, and an 11.47 sORA, since May 30th), Shohei Ohtani has been getting the Barry Bonds treatment. That means fewer opportunities to drive in runners, so he has to make the most of every opportunity to get on base and score. Indeed, Ohtani had three walks and a strikeout in four appearances yesterday, but even the strikeout led to him reaching 1st base via a wild pitch and later scoring on Taylor Ward's home run.

Inn Batter Event     Runner Runs Outs
1st Ohtani Walk
4th Ohtani Walk      Ohtani  .25
    Moniak Double    Ohtani  .18
5th Ohtani Strikeout Ohtani  .25
7th Ohtani Walk
    Ward   GIDP      Ohtani       .05
           Total             .68  .05

The 1st-inning walk led to naught. In the 4th he walked again and this time scored on Mickey Moniak's double. He earned .25 of his run for getting to 1st and another .18 for scoring from 1st on the double, .43 total. In the 5th was the strikeout/wild pitch. In the 7th he drew his third walk, went to 2nd on a single, and was forced at 3rd in Ward's 53 GIDP. Ohtani deserves just a little bit of the blame for the forceout, about 5% of it.

The simple formulas estimate he created 1.11 Runs (5/9 for each of his two runs scored) and 1 Out (for the hitless at-bat). Actually he was even more efficient than that: only .68 Runs created, but a tiny fraction of an Out (none for the hitless at-bat and .05 for the walk and forceout). Aim small, miss small.

I suppose it's worth mentioning that Barry Bonds never pitched into the 7th inning to earn the W; but that's what Shohei Ohtani also did yesterday. Anyways, Ohtani still leads MLB in simple ORA. Freddie Freeman has jumped into the NL lead after going 2-for-4 with a homer, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI yesterday.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA
 1 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    77.3  267  7.81
 2 Freddie Freeman, LAD  76.3  269  7.66
 3 Matt Olson, ATL       79.9  282  7.65
 4 Mookie Betts, LAD     74.8  273  7.40
 5 Adolis Garcia, TEX    78.7  288  7.38
 6 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 74.9  276  7.33
 7 Will Smith, LAD       51.4  195  7.12
 8 Corbin Carroll, ARI   63.1  250  6.82
 9 Isaac Paredes, TBR    52.3  212  6.66
10 Jonah Heim, TEX       57.1  233  6.61

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Ohtani Doing His Barry Bonds Impression

With Mike Trout injured and Ohtani red-hot (.359/.472/.906 with 23 HR in 43 games, and an 11.47 sORA, since May 30th), Shohei Ohtani has b...