Rookie phenom Corbin Carroll had a very rookie phenom-type game yesterday. He tripled and later scored on an error, he reached 3rd base on a strikeout, he singled with two men on, and he stole two bases only to be thrown out at home on a fielder's choice.
Here's another breakdown of his events and the runs and outs they earned him:
Carroll's triple was worth 1.745 Runs because it got Geraldo Perdomo home from 1st (.75 Runs), got him to 3rd (.75 Runs), and led to him scoring on Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s groundball (.245 Runs). Carroll's hit by pitch was worth .793 Outs because it led to him being thrown out at home on Gurriel's fielder's choice, and .793 of the out was Carroll's fault (by 2022 percentages).
With 3 runs scored, 2 RBI, and 3 hitless at-bats, the simple formulas estimate Carroll created (3*5)/9 + (2*4)/9 = 15/9 + 8/9 = 2.556 Runs against 3 Outs. So the simple formulas seriously underrate Carroll's performance yesterday, due to the fact that he actually created 3/4 of Perdomo's run and almost all of his own in the first inning, instead of the 4/9 estimated for an RBI and 5/9 for a run scored.
Speaking of the simple formulas, Carroll is hanging in at 8th in the Simple ORA Top 10. Not mentioned above, because Carroll didn't hit one yesterday, but a home run is worth 1/12 of a Run in the simple formula.
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