Thursday, July 6, 2023

Joey Votto's Game in Washington on 7/5/23

In the 2nd inning, Joey Votto hit a two-out, solo home run to tie the game at 1.

Inn Event    Runs Outs
2nd Home Run 1.00

In the 3rd, Votto hit a two-out single, but Jake Fraley was thrown out at 3rd base. The runner was out just 1% of the time in 2022 when the batter hit a two-out single with a runner on 1st. That's the percentage of Fraley's out that Votto is responsible for.

Inn Event    Runs Outs
2nd Home Run 1.00
3rd Single         .01

Votto struck out in the 5th. In the 7th inning he singled with Fraley on 1st again, and this time Fraley was safe at 3rd. Both Fraley and Votto were destined to score, so their bases are worth runs. The runner on 1st averaged 1.269 bases when the batter singled with no outs and a runner on 1st. Votto gets credit for that 1.269 average, since Fraley exceeded it, worth 1.269 / 4 = .32 Runs. Votto gets another .25 Runs for his own base, .57 total for the single.

Inn Event     Runs Outs
2nd Home Run  1.00
3rd Single          .01
5th Strikeout      1.00
7th Single     .57

Joe La Sorsa then balked, sending Fraley home and Votto to 2nd. Votto earns another base and quarter of a run, only this one gets chalked up to his baserunning (Rbr), as opposed to his batting (Rbat). Votto doesn't get any credit for going to 3rd when TJ Friedl was hit by a pitch or for scoring on Matt McLain's single, but still, a total of .82 Runs resulted from his single (.57 batting and .25 baserunning).

Inn Event     Rbat  Rbr Runs Outs
2nd Home Run  1.00      1.00
3rd Single                    .01
5th Strikeout                1.00
7th Single     .57  .25  .82

Votto struck out again in the 8th. He walked to load the bases with two outs in the 9th, but was stranded. His totals for the day, based on 2022 percentages: 1.82 Runs (1.57 batting and .25 baserunning) against 2.01 Outs (all batting).

Inn Event     Rbat  Rbr Runs Outs
2nd Home Run  1.00      1.00
3rd Single                    .01
5th Strikeout                1.00
7th Single     .57  .25  .82
8th Strikeout                1.00
9th Walk
Total         1.57  .25 1.82 2.01

This is a bit more than the 1.64 Runs I'd estimate from a home run (1/12 Run), two runs scored ((2*5)/9 Runs), and RBI (4/9 Run), probably because he did a big "little thing" that didn't earn him any runs or RBI: he moved Jake Fraley from 1st to 3rd on a single.

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