The way ORA works is that only runs that are actually scored and outs that are actually recorded count towards a player's record. It seems obvious, but so much of modern analytics seems like an exercise in woulda/coulda/shoulda. ORA only reckons with what actually happened.
For instance, in the 1st inning of the Reds' 8-4 win over Washington yesterday, two runners scored: Matt McLain and Jonathan India. McLain scored before Elly De La Cruz came to the plate, but Elly's single moved India from 1st to 3rd.
In 2022, when batters singled with a runner on 1st and one out, the runner averaged 1.266 bases. Since India advanced two bases, the batter De La Cruz gets credit for the average advance and India the baserunner gets credit for the rest (.734 bases). If a base is worth a quarter run, then De La Cruz earns about .32 of India's run. The rest belongs to India himself, who singled and went to 3rd on Elly's single, and Spencer Steer, who drove him in from 3rd. (So, .43 to India, .32 to EDLC, .25 to Steer.)
In the 3rd, De La Cruz was one of the three runners who scored, so he earns .25 Runs for getting to 1st on a single, .25 Runs for stealing 2nd, and .14 for going to 3rd on Tyler Stephenson's flyout. The .25 for the single goes in his batting Runs and the .25 and .14 for the advances to 2nd and 3rd go in his baserunning Runs. The .14 is because the runner on 2nd averaged .427 bases when the batter hit a fly ball non-hit with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. The batter gets credit for the average (.427 bases, worth about .11 Runs) and the runner gets credit for the rest (.573 bases, or about .14 Runs).
De La Cruz singled again in the 4th but was stranded at 3B; no runs scored aside from India's solo homer. In the 6th he hit his fourth straight single but was caught stealing 2nd base.
In the 8th he lined out, scoring McLain from 3rd. He gets .15 of McLain's run because the runner averaged .62 bases when batters hit a line drive that wasn't a hit with a runner on 3rd and one out. Final tally for De La Cruz's Independence Day: about 1.11 Runs (.72 batting and .39 baserunning) against 2 Outs (1 each batting and baserunning).
After besmirching "woulda/coulda/shoulda" sabermetrics, I too have a formula that estimates Runs Created (derived from the long method outlined above), and it's simple: a run scored is worth 5/9 of a Run, an RBI is worth 4/9 of a Run, and a home run is worth 1/12 of a Run.
Elly went 4-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI, so my simple formulas estimate he created 1 Run (5/9 for the run scored and 4/9 for the RBI) against 2 outs (a caught stealing and sac fly). It could be that dynamic baserunners like De La Cruz create more Runs than estimated because they're more involved in their own run scoring than a typical player. Elly's predecessor wearing #44, Eric Davis, certainly was.
Here's the up-to-date Top 10 based on the simple formulas:
The Braves' Acuna and Olson have both created an estimated 69 Runs, but Olson has paid 12 more Outs than Acuna has in creating them. After his 3-for-6, two-homer performance yesterday, Jonathan India has an even 6.00 Simple ORA, virtually tied with superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.03), Mike Trout (6.02), and Juan Soto (5.96).
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