If the extra-inning automatic runner goes to 3rd on a sac bunt, stays put when the next batter walks, and then scores on a groundout, who deserves credit for the run?
No one does, according to establishment Linear Weights formulas like weighted on-base average (wOBA). Groundouts are always negative-run events and sac bunts aren't even part of the equation (they're considered "managerial decisions" according to the explainer on baseball-reference). The only player who made a positive-run contribution was the batter who drew the walk, which actually did nothing to score the runner.
That's why I believe it's important to track both Runs AND Outs, the only two outcomes that actually matter in the game of baseball (and in Offensive Run Average). If you’re only tracking Runs, the move-batters-closer-to-home aspect of a sacrifice has to be neutralized by its tendency to move your team closer to the end of the inning, to the extent that it’s at best a wash, run value-wise. If you’re tracking both Runs AND Outs, the positive and negative outcomes are each kept on their own sides of the ledger.
The batters who moved the automatic runner with a sac bunt and a groundout in this hypothetical scenario (which turns out to not be so hypothetical since it's exactly what happened in the 10th inning of yesterday's Orioles/White Sox game) made outs, but they helped generate a run, too. If the automatic runner had been stranded or put out, those “productive outs” would have been worthless, and the batters would still be on the hook for the outs. Like Alec Baldwin said in Glengarry Glen Ross, "it's f*** or walk.” The batter who walks didn't make any outs, but he didn't generate any runs, either.
(This isn't supposed to be a rant against walks in general, just the idea that the walk in this particular scenario created any runs. The single-season leader in ORA (going back at least 46 years) is Barry Bonds, 12.41 in 2004, the year he walked a MLB-record 232 times.)
Anyways, MLB's top two players in simple ORA so far this year are facing each other in a weekend series, and for the second straight night Matt Chapman's Blue Jays prevailed over Brandon Lowe's recently-undefeated Rays.
But it's Jorge Mateo, still in 4th place, who had the far more interesting game. His Orioles lost to the White Sox, 7-6, in ten innings, but Mateo homered and drove in two runs. My simple formula estimates Runs as (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12, so Mateo earned an estimated (1*5 + 2*4)/9 + 1/12 = 13/9 + 1/12 = 1.53 Runs, about the same as the 1.5 he earned in two plate appearances Friday.
He had just one hitless at-bat but also a sac bunt and his first caught stealing of the year, so that's three estimated Outs.
Mateo led off the 3rd with a home run. That's easy; one Run.
In the 5th Mateo led off with a single, then was thrown out at 2nd in a strike-him-out/throw-him-out double play. Two outs were made; who was responsible for them?
On this occasion each man was largely responsible for his own out. When batters struck out with no outs and a runner on 1st in 2022, the batter was out 100% of the time and the runner was out just 1.8% of the time. The batter is responsible for the average outcome. Mateo is to blame for most of his out, but not all of it; Mullins bears a little responsibility for not making contact. 1.8% of Mateo's out is charged to Mullins' batting (or lack of it) and Mateo is to blame for the other 98.2% of it. Since he ran into that out, it's counted as a baserunning Out. So far he has 1 batting Run against 0.982 baserunning Outs.
In the 6th inning Mateo hit a bases-loaded single, scoring Austin Hays and advancing Adam Frazier to 3rd and Ramon Urias to 2nd. The average advance is at least one base for all runners on a bases-loaded, one-out single. Since no one exceeded one base, Mateo gets credit for all bases. But only Hays and Frazier scored (Hays on this play and Frazier when the next batter, Mullins, walked). Urias and Mateo were stranded, so their bases are worthless. Bases advanced by destined-to-score runners are worth a quarter-run each, so Mateo earns another 1/2 Run (1/4 for Hays and 1/4 for Frazier) for his single. He's now up to 1.5 batting Runs against 0.982 baserunning Outs.
In the 7th Mateo came up again with the bases loaded, only this time he grounded out to end the inning. In 2022, the batter was put out 67.2% of the time he hit a ground ball that wasn't a hit with the bases loaded and two outs. 30.5% of the time one of the runners on base was put out, and 2.2% of the time, no one was. The batter is responsible for the average outcome, so Mateo the batter is responsible for 67.2% of his out. Mateo the baserunner is responsible for the rest - 32.8% of it. He now has 0.672 batting Outs, 1.31 baserunning Outs, and 1.982 total Outs.
Mateo led off the 10th with a sac bunt that moved the automatic runner, Gunnar Henderson, to 3rd. It's tiebreaker rules: anything good you do to the automatic runner is worth twice as much. He only needs to advance two bases to score, so each base he advances is worth HALF of a run. That's provided he goes on to score, of course, which Henderson did. So Mateo earns half of a Run for bunting him over to 3rd.
The batter was only out 95.2% of the time he laid down a sac bunt with no outs and a runner on 2nd. So this is another out split between Mateo's batting and his baserunning: 0.952 to his batting Outs and 0.048 to his baserunning Outs.
Here is the table of events that earned Mateo Runs and Outs, along with the runners who actually did the advancing or the getting put out.
Thanks to the extra-inning sac bunt, Mateo actually created two full runs, almost half of a run more than what the simple formula estimated. He was responsible for almost 3 full outs (but not quite).
And as always, here's the up-to-date Top 10 based on the simple formulas:
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