Brandon Lowe is still leading in Simple ORA, Mateo and Chapman are still hanging on to top-4 spots (although Mateo might drop off due to another injury), and the Cubs' Patrick Wisdom has surged into the NL lead. But it's the Rangers' Marcus Semien, the MLB leader now in estimated Runs, who had the most interesting day yesterday.
Runs created or produced or generated can be estimated with a simple formula using only runs scored, RBI, and home runs. Runs scored are worth 5/9 of a Run, RBI are worth 4/9 of a Run, and home runs chip in with 1/12 of a Run. Outs are estimated by taking hitless at-bats and adding sacrifices, caught stealings, and grounded into double plays. And ORA, just like ERA, is Runs per 27 Outs.
Semien went 3-for-5 with 3 singles, 2 runs scored and 2 RBI yesterday as the Rangers beat the Royals, 12-3. So the simple formulas estimate he created 2 Runs and was to blame for 2 Outs. Real ORA looks at each run scored and out made and determines who was really responsible for them. Sometimes it's straightforward. Sometimes we need the average outcome for that event type in that base/out situation to tell us who gets credit for what. Since the 2023 event files won't be available until the season over, we'll get by with using the 2022 percentages for this demonstration.
Semien led off the game with a single and then went to 2nd on Travis Jankowski's walk. Semien is fully responsible for getting himself to 1st and Jankowski is fully responsible for advancing him to 2nd. That is backed up by the ORA system, in which the batter gets credit for the average outcome. The batter averaged at least one base on a bases-empty, no-out single, and the runner averaged one base exactly when the batter walked with no outs and a runner on 1st.
Then Semien advanced to third on Nathaniel Lowe's flyout and scored on an Adolis Garcia sac fly. Who gets credit for those bases? This time the batters share credit with the runner for both plays. The runner on 2nd averaged 0.427 bases when the batter hit a fly ball that wasn't a hit with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd. So the batter, Lowe, gets credit for 42.7% of Semien's advance from 2nd to 3rd. The rest, 57.3%, goes to the runner, Semien.
With 1st and 3rd and one out, the runner on 3rd averaged 0.743 bases (which means he scored 74.3% of the time) when the batter hit a fly ball that wasn't scored a hit. The batter, Garcia, gets credit for 74.3% of Semien's final advance, and Semien gets credit for the other 25.7% of it.
Since Semien scored, those bases are worth a quarter of a run each. He gets 0.25 of a Run for getting to 1st on a single, nothing for going to 2nd on the walk, 0.573 / 4 = 0.143 of a Run for advancing to 3rd on the fly out, and 0.257 / 4 = 0.064 of a Run for scoring on the sac fly. Altogether Semien gets credit for 0.25 + 0.143 + 0.064 = about 0.457 of his Run. Since the single was due to his hitting skill and the other advances were due to his baserunning, he’s earned 0.25 batting Runs and 0.207 baserunning Runs.
In the second Semien hit a two-out single which scored Leody Taveras from 2nd. The runner averaged 1.744 bases when the batter singled with two outs and a runner at 2nd. So Semien gets credit for those 1.744 bases, worth 1.744 / 4 = 0.436 Runs. Semien stole 2nd but was stranded when Jankowski struck out, so his own bases are worthless. He's now up to 0.893 Runs, 0.686 batting and 0.207 baserunning.
In the 4th Semien hit his third straight single, this one scoring Taveras from 3rd. The runner doesn't always score in these situations; he averaged 0.97 bases when the batter hit a single with one out and a runner on 3rd in 2022. So Semien picks up another 0.97 / 4 = 0.243 batting Runs.
This time Jankowski forced Semien at 2nd. The simple method gives all the blame to the batter for the hitless at-bat. The percentages say the runner was only out 76.2% of the time the batter hit a ground ball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with one out and a runner on 1st. That's Jankowski's share; Semien is to blame for the other 23.8% of his out. But with his 2nd RBI he’s up to 1.136 Runs for the game.
In the 7th Semien reached base again, this time on that rarest of batting plays: the catcher's interference. After Jankowski struck out, Semien went to 2nd on Lowe's walk and scored on Garcia's single. The runner on 2nd averaged 1.545 bases when the batter hit a single with one out and runners on 1st and 2nd. So Semien gets credit just for the last 2 - 1.545 = 0.455 bases of his advance, worth 0.114 Runs, plus all of 1st base, 0.25 Runs, for the interference; 0.364 Runs total for his 2nd run scored.
Semien finished the game with fly outs in each of the last two innings. The batter obviously gets full blame for getting put out, but sometimes a tiny bit of that out is a baserunning Out. "Not everyone with a rope around their neck hangs," Lee Van Cleef tells a woman in The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Not every batter who hits a catchable fly ball gets put out. Occasionally the batter reaches on an error. The batter is only responsible for the average outcome. The runner, including the batter as a runner, is on the hook for the rest. In this instance, Semien gets 0.3% of a baserunning Out for not escaping from the putout on that 8th-inning fly ball.
Semien created 1.5 Runs and 2.238 Outs, which is somewhat less impressive than the 2 of each the simple formulas estimated. Semien was fully responsible for the outs caused by his two hitless at-bats, plus he bears some of the blame for his teammate forcing him out. Meanwhile, he got a little more help from his teammates than usual scoring two runs and driving in two. Still, 1.5 Runs against 2.238 Outs is nothing to sneeze at; that's a 18.10 ORA for the game. The simple version has him at an even 27 for the game and in 6th place overall with a 8.84 average for the season.
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