There's a New Leader in simple ORA...

And it's Brandon Lowe. Yesterday he went 2-for-4 with a home run, 2 runs scored and 2 RBI to help his Rays improve to 13-0. The simple formulas estimate he created 2.08 Runs and 2 Outs.

For the complex version, instead of a narrative walk-thru, here's a table! (actually just single-space with Courier font, but whatever). The runner is who actually advanced the bases or got put out, and the Runs and Outs are what Lowe was responsible for. In the 5th, for example, Lowe was responsible for 0.248 of Josh Lowe's run, 0.34 of Francisco Mejia's run, and 0.25 of his own run. He earned no baserunning credit for going to 2nd on Randy Arozarena's single or for going to 3rd on Wander Franco's hit by pitch or for scoring on Manuel Margot's single, so I omitted those lines.

Inn Batter  Event     Runner   Runs  Outs

1st B. Lowe Strikeout B. Lowe       1.000

3rd B. Lowe Strikeout B. Lowe       1.000

5th B. Lowe Single    J. Lowe 0.248

                      Mejia   0.340

                      B. Lowe 0.250

7th B. Lowe Home Run  B. Lowe 1.000

Total                         1.838 2.000

The simple formula, (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12, overestimates his actual Run contribution a little. Even though his single moved Mejia from 1st to 3rd, the RBI was of a runner already on 3rd and he did nothing to help himself score once he got to 1st.

The simple ORA Top 10 (simple ORA = estimated Runs per 27 estimated Outs) unsurprisingly has four Tampa Bay Rays:

Rk Name                  Runs Outs  sORA

 1 Brandon Lowe, TBR     12.4  22  15.24

 2 Matt Chapman, TOR     12.5  26  12.95

 3 Yordan Alvarez, HOU   11.8  30  10.63

 4 Yandy Diaz, TBR       11.6  31  10.06

 5 Will Smith, LAD       10.6  29   9.85

 6 Randy Arozarena, TBR  13.5  38   9.57

 7 Ryan Mountcastle, BAL 14.5  41   9.55

 8 Max Muncy, LAD        11.8  34   9.33

 9 Bryan Reynolds, PIT   12.2  36   9.15

10 Isaac Paredes, TBR     9.1  27   9.14