Garcia's Big Game Propels Him into the Simple ORA Lead

The Rangers' Adolis Garcia went 5-for-5 with 3 home runs, 2 doubles, 5 runs scored, and 8 RBI.

The simple formula (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12 estimates he created (5*5 + 8*4)/9 + 3/12 = (25 + 32)/9 + 1/4 = 57/9 + 1/4 = 6.58 Runs against zero Outs.

He actually created a Run more than that, as documented in the table below:

Inn Batter Event    Runner     Runs  Outs

1st Garcia Home Run Jankowski 0.750

                    Garcia    1.000

2nd Garcia HBP      Semien    0.250

                    Jankowski 0.250

                    Garcia    0.250

3rd Garcia Home Run Lowe      0.750

                    Garcia    1.000

5th Garcia Home Run Lowe      0.750

                    Garcia    1.000

7th Garcia Double   Duran     0.500

                    Lowe      0.573

                    Garcia    0.500

7th Leon   Single   Garcia    0.064

           Batting            7.573

           Baserunning        0.064

           Total              7.637 0.000

His three home runs all came with a runner on 1st, so they moved the runner 3/4 of the way around the bases (and himself all the way around). That's 5.25 Runs right there. His hit by pitch advanced both runners, and they and Garcia all went on to score. That's 1/4 Run for each, 6 Runs total. (Garcia doesn't get any baserunning credit for going to 2nd on a single or for scoring on a double.)

Garcia's 7th inning double scored Duran from 2nd, that's 1/2 of a Run for him and 1/2 of a run for Garcia, who again went on to score; 7 Runs total. Lowe scored from 1st; Garcia gets credit for the 2.293 bases that the runner on 1st averaged in 2022 when batters doubled with one out and runners on 1st and 2nd. 2.293 / 4 = .573 Runs. Finally, Garcia deserves credit for the last .256 of his bases for scoring from 2nd on a two-out single, worth .064 baserunning Runs. Despite Garcia not earning any Runs for his 8th inning double (because it didn't lead to any runs being scored), his totals for the game are 7.573 batting Runs, .064 baserunning Runs, and 7.637 total Runs.

His home runs were worth 1.75 Runs each. The simple formula says all two-run homers are worth (1*5 + 2*4)/9 + 1/12 = 13/9 + 1/12 = 1.53 Runs. Even though he did nothing to help himself score once he reached 1st with a HBP, he advanced two runners who went on to score, so he earned 3/4 of a Run instead of the 5/9 the simple formula estimates for a run scored and no RBI. Of his eight RBI, three were of himself, four were of the runner on 1st, and one was of the runner on 2nd. None were of a runner on 3rd. Hence why he outperformed his estimated Runs by more than one full run.

Here's the new Top 10, based on the simple formulas. ORA, like ERA, is Runs per 27 Outs. 

Rk Player               Runs Outs sORA

 1 Adolis Garcia, TEX   23.0  59 10.54

 2 Brandon Lowe, TBR    16.6  44 10.19

 3 Yordan Alvarez, HOU  19.4  54  9.69

 4 Randy Arozarena, TBR 19.1  55  9.37

 5 Max Muncy, LAD       17.6  51  9.32

 6 James Outman, LAD    16.8  49  9.26

 7 Marcus Semien, TEX   20.3  60  9.15

 8 Pete Alonso, NYM     21.1  64  8.88

 9 Yandy Diaz, TBR      16.7  51  8.85

10 Patrick Wisdom, CHC  18.2  56  8.77