I've only done breakdowns of awesome Adam Duvall games, which are what most of Adam Duvall's games have been so far this season. Yesterday he went 1-for-4 with no runs scored or RBI. The simple method says he created zero Runs and three Outs. What does the longform method, based on 2022 stats, reveal? Did he play any part in any of the four runs the Red Sox scored?
In the 1st he struck out with two outs and runners on 1st and 2nd. Duvall gets 99.9% of a batting Out and 0.1% of a baserunning Out (for not reaching 1st on a passed ball or wild pitch).
In the 4th he led off with a single and then was forced at second by Christian Arroyo. Runners were out 78.3% of the time the batter hit a ground ball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with a runner on 1st and no outs. So Arroyo is responsible for 78.3% of that out, and Duvall is responsible for the other 21.7% of it. 0.999 batting Outs, 0.218 baserunning Outs.
In the 5th Duvall came up again with runners on 1st and 2nd and two outs. This time he forced Justin Turner at 2nd. The runner on 1st was out just 23.3% of the time the batter hit a ground ball non-hit in this base/out situation, so Duvall gets just 23.3% of an out. 1.232 batting Outs, 0.218 baserunning Outs.
In the 8th Duvall led off with a groundout. Batters were out 97.1% of the time they hit a groundball non-hit with the bases empty and no outs. So Duvall gets 0.971 batting Outs and 0.029 baserunning Outs.
His game total: 2.203 batting Outs, 0.247 baserunning Outs, 2.45 total Outs. Duvall didn't earn any Run shares, but he does deserve less than the 3 Outs the simple method charges him with.
Despite the 0-against-3 game Duvall still has a comfortable lead in Simple ORA:
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