In the 2nd Mateo walked to load the bases, but the next batter, Terrin Vavra, struck out to leave the runners stranded. Can't create any runs if no runs score. Next.
In the 4th he hit the sac fly, which scored Adam Frazier. In 2022 the runner on 3rd scored 74.3% of the time the batter hit a fly ball with one out and runners on 1st and 3rd. The batter deserves credit for the average, 74.3%, and the runner, Frazier, deserves credit for the other 25.7%. But this was just the last quarter of Frazier's trip around the bases we're dividing up. Mateo's share is 0.743 / 4, or 0.186 Runs.
The batter was out 99.6% of the time in this scenario. The batter gets blamed for the average, the runner gets the rest. So Mateo the batter is charged 0.996 of an Out and Mateo the baserunner is charged the other 0.004 of it.
In the 6th Mateo singled, moving Gunnar Henderson to 2nd, and then was forced out by Vavra. Henderson later scored on a wild pitch. Mateo deserves a quarter of Henderson's run. Vavra deserves 68.7% of Mateo's out, because that's how often the runner on 1st was put out when the batter hit a ground ball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out. Mateo deserves the other 31.3%.
In the 8th inning of a tie game, Mateo led off with a double, stole 3rd, and scored on a Cedric Mullins single. Mateo actually deserves a tiny bit of baserunning credit on the double (because occasionally a batter was thrown out trying to stretch a leadoff double into a triple, and therefore advanced zero bases) and for scoring from 3rd on the single (because runners didn't always score from 3rd on a single hit with no outs and runners on 1st and 3rd). His total for the inning: 0.499 batting Runs (for the double), 0.255 baserunning Runs (mostly for the stolen base), and 0.754 total Runs.
In the 9th Mateo moved Henderson to 2nd with a groundout, and Henderson once again went on to score. Mateo deserves 23.9% of Henderson's base (because the runner on 1st advanced 0.239 bases per ground ball that wasn't a hit or a sac bunt with no outs and a runner on 1st) and therefore 6% of his run. Mateo the batter deserves 63.6% of his out (because the batter was put out 63.6% of the time he hit a ground ball non-hit, non-sac bunt with no outs and a runner on 1st). Mateo the baserunner deserves the other 36.4% of the out for being easier pickings than the runner on 1st.
The simple formulas estimated Mateo created 1 Run and 2 Outs. Because of all his small-ball activity, Mateo actually earned a little more of each - 1.25 Runs against 2.313 Outs, which is a slightly higher game ORA (14.59 instead of 13.50).
His performance by the simple formulas was still enough to vault him to 2nd in the Simple ORA Top 10:
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