Baltimore speedster Jorge Mateo has run his way into the Simple ORA Top 10, now ranking 4th with a 10.28 average. Mateo pinch-hit in the 7th inning of the Orioles' 6-3 win over the White Sox, stayed in the game at shortstop, and ended up scoring 2 runs and driving in one. The simple formula says he produced (2*5 + 1*4)/9 + 0/12 = 14/9 = 1.56 Runs against 0 Outs.
In the 7th inning Mateo walked, went to 2nd on Terrin Vavra's single, went to 3rd on Cedric Mullins's walk, and scored on Adley Rutschman's 3-run double.
In the ORA system, a base is worth a quarter run if the runner advancing it scores. The only question is who deserves credit for it - the batter or runner or both. On batting plays, the batter gets credit for the average advance. The runner gets credit for the rest.
Mateo was the batter when he walked, and batters averaged, unsurprisingly, one base exactly when they drew a walk with a runner on 2nd and one out in 2022. Since Mateo went on to score, that base is worth a quarter of a run to him.
The runner on 1st averaged 1.44 bases when a single was hit with two outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, which is the situation Mateo found himself in when Vavra singled. If Mateo had gone to 3rd, he would have gotten credit for the above-average part of his advance, 2 - 1.44 = 0.56 of a base, and that 0.56 of a base would have been worth 0.56 / 4 = 0.14 Runs, because he went on to score. Since Mateo had to stop at 2nd (because Gunnar Henderson stopped at 3rd), he advanced just one base, less than the average advance for a runner in his situation. Therefore the batter Vavra gets full credit for moving Mateo to 2nd.
Mullins also gets the credit for moving Mateo to 3rd with a bases-loaded walk, and Rutschman gets the credit for scoring him with a double. So Mateo only deserves credit for one quarter of his run, getting to 1st base. The succeeding batters did the rest of the work. The simple formula assumes he deserves 5/9, or 0.56 of it.
In the 8th Mateo drove in Austin Hays from 2nd with a double, went to 3rd on an error on a pickoff, and scored on a Ryan O'Hearn double.
The runner averaged two bases exactly and the batter averaged slightly more, about 2.01 (on account of errors and such), on two-out doubles with a runner on 2nd. Since both the batter and the runner advanced two bases, Mateo gets credit for all four bases. They both scored so those four bases are worth a full run to Mateo.
The batter has nothing to do with non-batting plays, like pickoffs. So the runners always get full credit for all bases they advance and all outs they run into. So Mateo gets another quarter of a run for going to 3rd on the pickoff error.
The nature of the ORA system causes Runs (and Outs) to be naturally separated into what the batter did with his hitting ability, and everything else that happened (baserunning, errors, etc.) Mateo earned the quarter of a run from his 7th-inning walk and the full run from his RBI double with his batting. He earned the advance to 3rd on the pickoff error with his baserunning.
Needless to say, O'Hearn gets credit for the last quarter of Mateo's run, driving him in from 3rd with a double.
The simple formula says Mateo deserves 0.56 (5/9) of a Run for each of his two runs scored and 0.44 (4/9) for his RBI; 1.56 total.
The “complex” version of ORA is in this instance even simpler: his two runs scored were worth an average of half of a Run each and so was his RBI. He earned 0.25 of a Run for getting to 1st with a walk, 0.75 of a Run for getting to 3rd with a double and pickoff error, and 0.5 of a Run for driving in Hays from 2nd. He earned 1.25 batting Runs, 0.25 baserunning Runs, and 1.50 total Runs. Not bad for two innings of work.
By all accounts he created zero outs. He didn't have any hitless at-bats or sacrifices. No runners were harmed during either of his plate appearances. He didn’t run into any outs. He was even safe on an error when he was picked off.
Here's the Top 10 through yesterday's games, based on the aforementioned simple formulas. Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12, Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SF + SH, and sORA = Runs / Outs x 27.
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