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| "You may score the runs, but I do the hitting. We cut down my percentage, it's liable to interfere with my swing." |
If I'd ever messed around with AI or installed the photo-editing software I got for Christmas I would put a Blue Jays hat on Clint's head, but here we are.
Duvall is on the IL and Lowe had just a pinch-hit groundout yesterday, so today I'll break down the performance of the 3rd-place man in Simple ORA, Matt Chapman. Chapman went 2-for-3 with a run scored against the Tigers yesterday. The simple formula that estimates Runs produced says Chapman earned 5/9 of a Run against one Out (one hitless at-bat).
In the first Chapman hit an inning-ending double; it ended the inning because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was thrown out at home trying to score from 1st. It was the 3rd out, so none of the bases advanced led to any runs. How much of the out Chapman is responsible for depends on how often the runner is put out in this situation. If Chapman had homered, the runner would never be out. If he had hit a ground ball that wasn't a base hit with one out, the runner would be out a high percentage of the time. In 2022, the runner was out 3.9% of the time when the batter hit a double with two outs and a runner on 1st. So Chapman would be responsible for 3.9% of Guerrero's out.
In the 4th inning Chapman popped out. The batter was out 98.8% of the time he hit a pop up that wasn't a base hit with one out and a runner on 1st. So Chapman is responsible for 98.8% of his out. He was the one put out, so he's also responsible for the other 1.2%, but that goes in his baserunning Outs. Baserunning Outs (and Runs) are catch-alls for everything a player does on offense that doesn't reflect batting skill (at least not the skill that shows in his batting average), like reaching base on an error. 98.8% of the out is for popping up and the other 1.2% is for not reaching base anyway, because 1.2% of batters did reach base. So he now has 0.039 + 0.988 = 1.027 batting Outs, 0.012 of a baserunning Out, and 1.039 total Outs so far.
In the 6th Chapman hit a two-out single, and this time he was the one to run into the 3rd out when he was thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd on Daulton Varsho's single. Once again Chapman's hit is worthless because no one scored in the inning. The runner was out just 1.2% of the time the batter singled with two outs and a runner on 1st in 2022. So Varsho would get dinged with 1.2% of that out. The other 98.8% is charged to Chapman for his reckless baserunning. So far he's 2-for-3 but has produced zero Runs against 2.027 Outs (1.027 batting and 1 baserunning).
In the 9th Chapman walked, moving Guerrero to 2nd. Spoiler alert but both Blue Jays went on to score. The walk pushed them both one quarter of the way around the bases, so Chapman produced a quarter of a run for each of them - a half run total. He's finally on the board with 0.5 of a batting Run.
Then the runners advanced to 2nd and 3rd on a wild pitch. The batter obviously has nothing to do with baserunning plays; the runner alone is responsible for any bases he advances or outs he runs into. Since Chapman scored, 2nd base was worth another quarter of a run to him. He's now up to 0.75 of a Run, 0.5 batting and 0.25 baserunning.
After a hit by pitch loaded the bases, new Tiger reliever Chasen Shreve gave up a sac fly to Whit Merrifield. Chapman advanced to 3rd. Runners on 2nd advanced a total of 32 bases the 85 times the batter hit a fly ball that wasn't a hit with the bases loaded and no outs, 0.376 bases per fly ball. Since Chapman is destined to score, that 37.6% of a base is worth one quarter of that, or 9.4% of a run to the batter, Merrifield. But Chapman is the one who did the running, and he gets the other 62.4% of the base, worth 15.6% of the run. He now has 0.5 batting Runs and 0.406 baserunning Runs.
And then pinch hitter Alejandro Kirk hit another sac fly, sending Chapman home with the tying run. The runner on 3rd scored 74.3% of the time the batter hit a fly ball non-hit with one out and runners on 1st and 3rd. Kirk gets that 74.3% of a base, worth 18.6% of a run. Chapman gets the other 25.7% of the base and the final 6.4% of his run.
That was an eventful 9th inning. Let's break it down again, this time in table form. "RunsBat" and "RunsBR" are Chapman's batting and baserunning Runs. "Scoring Runner" just means the runner is destined to score, but not necessarily on that event.
In other words, Chapman created 0.25 of Guerrero's run with his bat. He created 0.72 of his own run, 0.25 with his bat and 0.47 with his baserunning.
And here is an ORA event log/box score of sorts for Chapman's game. Except for steal attempts (which Chapman didn't have), all running plays are assigned to the event that got him on base.
So Chapman caused more than double the Outs the simple method estimated, but he also created nearly a full Run instead of just the 5/9 estimated. I should mention again the caveat that these are based on 2022 percentages. For example, in 2023 the bigger bases might entice runners to get thrown out more often than 1.2% of the time going 1st to 3rd on a single with two outs. If that happens, it will cut into the runner's percentage of the blame. The batter is only responsible for the average outcome. If the average is tiny, the batter only gets a tiny share of the credit or blame. If runners are getting mowed down left and right, it must be the event itself that's the problem and therefore batters deserve more of the blame. In reality runners probably won't get thrown out on base hits any more often this year than they did last year, but who knows.
Anyways, with another ORA walk-thru out of the way, here's the current Top 10 based on the simple formulas that estimate Runs and Outs. Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12, and Outs = (AB - H + CS + GIDP + SF + SH). And ORA is on the same scale as ERA: Runs per 27 Outs.
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