I went on vacation for four days fully expecting Adam Duvall to have washed out of the sORA Top 10 when I returned, but after another big game Saturday he still sits comfortably atop the leaderboard at Number 1.
Let's take a look at that game and the Runs and Outs Duvall contributed... not his runs scored and RBI and hitless at-bats (although you can use those to estimate his capital-R Runs and Outs). Using 2022 averages, we'll look at every Run and Out he was a part of, how much of the credit or blame for each he deserves, and whether it was due to his batting or his baserunning.
In the 2nd inning Duvall flied out. He gets 99.3% of a batting Out for that, because 99.3% of the time a batter hit a fly ball that wasn't a hit with a runner on 1st and no outs, he was out. He gets 0.7% of a baserunning Out, because 0.7% of the time the batter was safe anyway.
In the 3rd he came up again with no outs and Masataka Yoshida on 1st, and this time he homered. He earns 1.75 batting Runs because his big fly pushed Yoshida three-fourths of the way around the bases and himself all the way around. So far Duvall has 1.75 batting Runs, 0.993 batting Outs, and 0.007 baserunning Outs.
In the 5th he came up once again with Yoshida on 1st, this time with one out, and this time Duvall hit a ground ball that forced Yoshida at 2nd. When batters hit a ground ball (not a hit or a sac bunt) with one out and a runner on 1st, the runner was out 76.2% of the time. So Duvall earns 76.2% of a batting Out (Yoshida gets the blame for the rest of the Out, 23.8%). Duvall gets credit for being safe at 1st, but that base is worthless because he was stranded when the next batter grounded out. Only bases advanced by runners who scored are worth Runs. Duvall now has 1.75 batting Runs, 1.755 batting Outs, and 0.007 baserunning Outs.
In the 8th Duvall led off with a double and then scored on an Alex Verdugo single. Batters averaged 1.996 bases on no-out, bases-empty doubles in 2022. Bases advanced by a runner who scored are worth a quarter of a run each. Duvall gets 0.499 (1.996 / 4) batting Runs for the double and 0.001 baserunning Runs for not getting himself thrown out trying to stretch the double into a triple.
The runner on 2nd averaged 1.284 bases when the batter hit a single with no outs and a runner on 2nd. The batter gets credit for everything up to an average advance on his batting event. The runner gets credit for everything in excess of the average. So Verdugo gets 0.321 batting Runs (1.284 / 4) and Duvall gets 0.179 baserunning Runs ((2 - 1.284) / 4) for scoring from 2nd on the single. He now has 2.249 batting Runs, 0.18 baserunning Runs, 1.755 batting Outs, and 0.007 baserunning Outs.
In the 9th Duvall doubled again, then scored when pinch hitter Raimel Tapia homered. Batters averaged slightly more than two bases on doubles hit with one out and the bases empty, so Duvall's half of a Run all gets credited to his batting this time, not just most of it. Runners score 100% of the time the batter hits a home run, so Tapia gets full credit for the other half of Duvall's Run in this inning.
Duvall's ORA box score for April 8, 2023 (using 2022 averages):
The simple formula to estimate Runs is: (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12. Duvall had a home run, 3 runs, and 2 RBI, so his estimated Runs is (3*5 + 2*4)/9 + 1/12 = 23/9 + 1/12 = 2.64, and his estimated Outs is 2 for the 2 hitless at-bats. So the simple method underestimates Duvall's Runs and overestimates his Outs for yesterday's game.
That doesn't stop him from having a seven-run lead in the Simple ORA Top 10. Yordan Alvarez is still hanging around at 8th and has been joined by several more heavy hitters - 4-time ORA champion Mike Trout among them - as reality starts to catch up with the lesser mortals (but not Duvall, not yet anyways).
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