Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Simple ORA Top 10 - Judge Gone, Alvarez Gone, Acuna and Ohtani (and Parity) Rule

As Yordan Alvarez falls off the requisite number of plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, the frontrunners for MVP of their respective leagues are now ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Run Average, as best as can be determined by the simple formulas. We won't know their actual Runs and Outs until the season is over, but the formulas give a good estimate:

Runs = (R*5 + RBI*4)/9 + HR/12
Outs = AB - H + CS + GIDP + SH + SF

And ORA is always Runs / Outs x 27, just as it is for pitchers (except I don't bother with a distinction between earned and unearned runs).

Acuna and Ohtani each hit a pair of solo home runs yesterday. Acuna paired his two homers with a strikeout and groundout, while Ohtani reached base twice more with a single and a walk but was stranded both times. Translation: both men created two Runs; but Acuna also caused two Outs whereas Ohtani was blameless (he also pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball with 10 K's). Still, Acuna edges out Ohtani for #1 in the first post-Alvarez Top 10.

Rk Player                Runs Outs  sORA
 1 Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 63.1  230  7.41
 2 Shohei Ohtani, LAA    61.3  226  7.33
 3 Adolis Garcia, TEX    61.8  231  7.22
 4 Corbin Carroll, ARI   54.3  205  7.15
 5 Will Smith, LAD       39.8  152  7.07
 6 Freddie Freeman, LAD  57.5  222  6.99
 7 Matt Olson, ATL       61.0  241  6.83
 8 Yandy Diaz, TBR       46.2  184  6.78
 9 Ketel Marte, ARI      53.7  215  6.74
10 Isaac Paredes, TBR    44.4  178  6.74

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