Actually just 79 would do the trick.
From wikipedia:
Base stealing was popular in the game's early decades, with speedsters such as Ty Cobb and Clyde Milan stealing nearly 100 bases in a season. But the tactic fell into relative disuse after Babe Ruth introduced the era of the home run – in 1955, for example, no one in baseball stole more than 25 bases, and Dom DiMaggio won the AL stolen base title in 1950 with just 15. However, in the late 1950s and early 1960s, base-stealing was brought back to prominence primarily by Luis Aparicio and Maury Wills, who broke Cobb's modern single-season record by stealing 104 bases in 1962. Wills’ record was broken in turn by Lou Brock in 1974 and Rickey Henderson in 1982. The stolen base remained a popular tactic through the 1980s, perhaps best exemplified by Vince Coleman and the St. Louis Cardinals, but began to decline again in the 1990s as the frequency of home runs reached record heights and the steal-friendly artificial turf ballparks began to disappear.
By my reckoning, there have been two stolen base eras and two home run eras in baseball's history. A stolen base era begins when a player suddenly steals more bases in a season than anyone has stolen in at least 30 years. During a stolen base era, the single-season record might be broken several times, and the most prolific base-stealers regularly put up stolen bases totals that were unheard of in the previous (home run) era. Sluggers, meanwhile, fall short of the home run totals of that prior era. Then, eventually, the pendulum swings back the other way; someone breaks (or threatens to break) the single-season home run record, and the game enters a home run era. Now the opposite happens: sluggers regularly hit numbers of home runs unimaginable in the previous era, while the most prolific base-stealers fail to live up to their predecessors.
Baseball's first era comprises the first fifteen years of professional baseball: the five years of the National Association (1871-1875), and the first ten years of the National League (1876-1885). The National Association single-season record for home runs was seven, hit by Lip Pike in 1872, and the stolen base record was 43, by Ross Barnes in 1873.
I'm not sure how National Association stolen base records have come down to us at all, because stolen bases simply weren't recorded for the first ten years of the National League. Meanwhile, the "major league" home run record was broken three times in those same years: Charley Jones hit 9 in 1879, then Harry Stovey hit 14 in 1883, and then Ed Williamson nearly doubled that with 27 in 1884.
I don't know if I'd call baseball's first era a home run era since no one even hit double digits until its third-to-last year. (Other than the 1884 White Stockings, who had sub-200-foot right- and leftfield fences in their home park, no player hit more than 14 in this era.) But it's a home run era by default, I guess.
The following chart shows the MLB leader in home runs and stolen bases for each year of the era. "PR" is the previous record and an x under "NR" means a new record was set.
Year MLB HR Leader HR PR NR MLB SB Leader SB PR NR
1873 Lip Pike 4 7 Ross Barnes 43 20 x
1877 Lip Pike 4 7 - 43
1879 Charley Jones 9 7 x - 43
1880 O'Rourke/Stovey 6 9 - 43
1882 Walker/Wood 7 9 - 43
1885 Harry Stovey 13 27 - 43
"It was not until 1886 that the stolen base appeared as something to be tracked, but was only to 'appear in the summary of the game.' In 1887, the stolen base was given its own individual statistical column in the box score." At least one player stole 100 bases every year from 1887 to 1891, and again in 1894. Even from 1898 on, when the rules for what was and wasn't a stolen base were narrowed to the current definition, Ross Barnes' NA-record 43 steals was exceeded every single year through 1918, and Ty Cobb set the modern record with 96 in 1915. Meanwhile, no one equaled Ed Williamson's record 27 home runs, although Buck Freeman (25 in 1899) and Gavvy Cravath (24 in 1915) came close.
From this point on, "PR" is either the record for the previous era or for the previous 30 years, whichever is lower, and an x under "NR" means that the MLB leader exceeded that standard. For instance, Williamson's 27 home runs was the record for the previous era and the most in recent history until 1915, when it faded from memory and Freeman's 25 home runs became the standard. The 43 and x in every row on the stolen base side means that base-stealers exceeded the 1871-1885 "record" every year, as stated.
Year MLB HR Leader HR PR NR MLB SB Leader SB PR NR
1886 Brouthers/Richardson 11 27 Harry Stovey 68 43 x
1891 Stovey/Tiernan 16 27 Billy Hamilton 111 43 x
1895 Sam Thompson 18 27 Billy Hamilton 97 43 x
1903 Buck Freeman 13 27 Chance/Sheckard 67 43 x
1909 Ty Cobb 9 27 Ty Cobb 76 43 x
1913 Gavvy Cravath 19 27 Clyde Milan 75 43 x
1915 Gavvy Cravath 24 25 Ty Cobb 96 43 x
1916 (Three players) 12 25 Ty Cobb 68 43 x
1917 Cravath/Robertson 12 25 Ty Cobb 55 43 x
Then came the Babe and baseball's first true Home Run Era. In 1919 the Boston pitcher/outfielder hit 29 homers, breaking not only Buck Freeman's 1899 record of 25 but Ed Williamson's old 1884 mark of 27. Meanwhile, for the first time since stolen bases were recorded, not one player in 1919 stole more than 40 bases. Ruth went to the Yankees the next year and shattered his own record with an unthinkable 54 round-trippers. He broke his own record twice more, and then for 33 years sluggers tried and failed to be the "son of a bitch" that matched his record of 60 until Roger Maris did it with 61 in '61.
In a reverse of the Stolen Base Era, the record 25 home runs of that era was exceeded (and often obliterated) every single year, and the MLB leader had at least 35 every year except for the three World War 2 seasons. Meanwhile no base-stealer came close to equaling the exploits of the previous three decades, even as first Billy Hamilton and then Ty Cobb dropped out of recent memory. By the 1950s, with the standard of recent history reduced to 60 steals, the stolen base became almost a novelty (as stated in the wikipedia quote). Nobody stole more than 40 bases between 1945 and 1958. Then Luis Aparicio became the John the Baptist to Maury Wills's Jesus, the Gavvy Cravath to Babe Ruth; the harbinger of what was soon to come but not the man himself who would bring about the next era.
Year MLB HR Leader HR PR NR MLB SB Leader SB PR NR
1924 Babe Ruth 46 25 x Max Carey 49 100
1925 Rogers Hornsby 39 25 x Max Carey 46 97
1927 Babe Ruth 60 25 x Frankie Frisch 48 96
1929 Babe Ruth 46 25 x Cool Papa Bell 49 96
1933 Jimmie Foxx 48 25 x Ben Chapman 27 96
1935 Foxx/Greenberg 36 25 x Billy Werber 29 96
1942 Ted Williams 36 25 x George Case 44 96
1951 Ralph Kiner 42 25 x Sam Jethroe 35 61
1959 Eddie Mathews 46 25 x Luis Aparicio 56 61
1960 Ernie Banks 41 25 x Luis Aparicio 51 61
1961 Roger Maris 61 25 x Luis Aparicio 53 61
The baseball gods don't always choose a superhero to carry the game into a shining new age. Sometimes that task falls on a mere mortal. Maury Wills was no Babe Ruth. (This era would get its superhero; but instead of announcing its arrival like the Sultan of Swat did the Home Run Era, the Man of Steal wouldn't appear until the latter half of the Second Stolen Base Era.) It took a decade or so for the gospel (and Astroturf) to spread around the leagues, and Wills wasn't always there to set the example year in and out until a dozen imitators had entered the game to take his place. (He only surpassed the standard of the previous era twice, in '62 and '65.) But Lou Brock and other disciples arrived all the same and by 1973 the era really hit its stride. Starting that year, the MLB leader stole at least 70 bases every year for 21 straight seasons. By the early '90s, no one had made a serious run at Roger Maris's home run record in the 30 years since he had set it, and it seemed likely that the natural ceiling for a slugger in the expansion era was 52 (hit by Willie Mays in 1965 and equaled by George Foster in 1977).
Speaking of natural, if the forerunner of the era soon-to-come was Gavvy Cravath for the first Home Run Era and Luis Aparicio for the second Stolen Base Era, then the prophet who paved the way for our current age would have to be the brash, hulking young outfielder for the Oakland A's who won the AL MVP in 1988 with the first ever 40-40 season and who led MLB in home runs that year and again in '91: Jose Canseco.
Year MLB HR Leader HR PR NR MLB SB Leader SB PR NR
1962 Willie Mays 49 61 Maury Wills 104 61 x
1964 Harmon Killebrew 49 61 Luis Aparicio 57 63
1965 Willie Mays 52 61 Maury Wills 94 63 x
1972 Johnny Bench 40 61 Lou Brock 63 63
1973 Willie Stargell 44 61 Lou Brock 70 63 x
1980 Mike Schmidt 48 61 Rickey Henderson 100 63 x
1982 Jackson/Thomas 39 61 Rickey Henderson 130 63 x
1983 Mike Schmidt 40 61 Rickey Henderson 108 63 x
1987 Dawson/McGwire 49 61 Vince Coleman 109 63 x
1988 Jose Canseco 42 61 Rickey Henderson 93 63 x
According to my method, the current era - the Second Home Run Era - should start in 1997, when both Mark McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr. became the first players since 1961 to hit more than 52 home runs. But it's pretty obvious that three years earlier, in 1994, at least one player would have surpassed 52 (if not 61) had the lockout not ended the season in August. (Matt Williams hit 56 homers in the Giants' first 162 games of 1994-95, despite breaking his foot and missing the final eleven games of that span.) More importantly, the '94 season proved to everyone that it was possible (and even probable) that Maris' home run record would fall, and from that point on the chase (and the home run mania that went with it) was on. Therefore I've decided to "cheat" and peg the start of the current era at 1994 instead of '97.
Year MLB HR Leader HR PR NR MLB SB Leader SB PR NR
1996 Mark McGwire 52 52 Kenny Lofton 75 130
2007 Alex Rodriguez 54 52 x Jose Reyes 78 130
2015 Chris Davis 47 52 Dee Strange-Gordon 58 110
It's been over 20 years since the record-breaking frenzy of 1998-2001, and the players who did the breaking have found themselves remembered more as villains than heroes for the substances they allegedly took to aid them in their conquests. PEDs have been driven from the game, and yet the MLB leader has eclipsed the standard of the previous era - 52 home runs - in seven of the last 20 seasons (and in four of the last ten). Roger Maris's AL home run record finally fell to Aaron Judge, who hit 62 in '22, but you have to go back to 2017 for the last time anybody stole at least 50 bases, and to 2009 for the last 70-steal season.
Just like at the end of the First Home Run Era - the 1950s and early '60s - the base-stealing exploits of the previous era now seem half-mythical. 100 steals in a season is an impossibly high number, never mind 130; it's been 35 years since anyone even stole 80. And just like in the early '60s, the product on the field has grown stale (or so say the powers that be), and so MLB is tinkering with the rules to encourage the type of game it wants to see, just as 30 years ago it encouraged more home runs by turning a blind eye to growing steroid use. In 2023 that means banning the shift (to encourage more base hits) and making the bases larger (to encourage more stolen bases).
In 1961, Roger Maris's record-breaking home run season closed out the First Home Run Era; it was immediately followed by Maury Wills's record-breaking stolen base season and the start of the Second Stolen Base Era. Will Aaron Judge's record-breaking 2022 season and MLB's rule changes bring about the Third Stolen Base Era?
Years Era MLB HR Leader HR MLB SB Leader SB
1871-1885 Dawn Williamson, 1884 27 Barnes, 1873 43
1886-1918 1st SB Freeman, 1899 25 Nicol, 1887 138
Cobb, 1915 96
1919-1961 1st HR Maris, 1961 61 Rice, 1920 63
1962-1993 2nd SB Mays, 1965 52 Rickey, 1982 130
Foster, 1977 52
1994- 2nd HR Bonds, 2001 73 Reyes, 2007 78
We're now in the 30th year of the Second Home Run Era. The First Home Run Era lasted 43 years; the average duration of the previous three eras was 36 years. So more than likely we have a few more years left before the current era finally comes to a close. But if some player goes out and steals 79 or more bases, we'll know the Third Stolen Base Era is underway.
